Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atlético Madrid		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.88
	2.48	3.4	2.92
	2.5	3.45	2.97
	2.53	3.49	3
	2.5	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.35)	3.43 ↓ (3.55)	2.91 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
38.7%

Draw
28.2%

Inter Milan
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

26.5%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	28.2%	10.3%

Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 76 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 47 - 61.8%). Inter will win (votes: 8 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 27.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 50.9% – 72.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 18 - 47.4%). Inter (votes: 3 - 7.9%). Tie (votes: 17 - 44.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Atlético (1.43) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Atlético (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 20 - 48.8%). Inter (votes: 4 - 9.8%). Tie (votes: 17 - 41.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Musso J. (G) 16. Molina N. 2. Gimenez J. M. (C) 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 5. Cardoso J. 4. Gallagher C. 19. Alvarez J. 10. Baena A.	1. Sommer Y. (G) 25. Akanji M. 31. Bisseck Y. 95. Bastoni A. 30. Carlos Augusto 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 7. Zielinski P. 32. Dimarco F. 10. Martinez L. (C) 14. Bonny A.
Substitutes
11. Almada T. 33. de Luis M. (G) 31. Esquivel S. (G) 21. Galan J. 23. Gonzalez N. 7. Griezmann A. 6. Koke 15. Lenglet C. 12. Martin C. 18. Pubill M. 22. Raspadori G. 9. Sorloth A.	15. Acerbi F. 53. Alexiou C. 43. Cocchi M. 6. de Vrij S. 17. Diouf A. 94. Esposito F. 16. Frattesi D. 11. Luis Henrique 13. Martinez J. (G) 8. Sucic P. 60. Taho A. (G) 9. Thuram M.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽,
44', Dimarco F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 1, Zielinski P. ⚽, Bonny A. (A),
59', Molina N. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
59', Gallagher C. ↓, Koke ↑,
59', Cardoso J. ↓, Pubill M. ↑,
64', Simeone D. 🟨,
65', Zielinski P. ↓, Sucic P. ↑,
65', Bonny A. ↓, Thuram M. ↑,
68', Baena A. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
68', Ruggeri M. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
72', Martinez L. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,
72', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
79', Dimarco F. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Gimenez J. M. ⚽, Griezmann A. (A),

Preview

Atlético has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Inter is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Inter has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Atlético: Le Normand R. (Knee Injury) Llorente M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Inter: Darmian M. (Calf Injury) Di Gennaro R. (Wrist Injury) Dumfries D. (Ankle Injury) Mkhitaryan H. (Muscle Injury) Palacios T. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Oblak J. (Injury) Simeone G. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Getafe - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Levante	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Saint-Gilloise	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Sevilla	3:0 ✺
27.10.25	Betis - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
23.11.25	Inter Milan - Milan	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Inter Milan - Lazio	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Inter Milan - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Verona - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
13.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan	3:1 penalties
20.02.24	Inter Milan - Atlético Madrid	1:0
International Champions Cup
11.08.18	Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan	0:1

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