Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Atlético Morelia		Tapatío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.65	3.95	Watch
	1.77	3.91	4.26
	1.90	3.69	3.65	Watch
	1.75	3.91	4.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.75)	3.79 ↑ (3.76)	3.99 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
51.9%

Draw
24.7%

Tapatío
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.8%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

21.7%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Morelia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Morelia - Tapatío Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Morelia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Morelia will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torres A. (G) 11. Figueroa B. 10. Figueroa F. 28. Flores A. 16. Garcia U. 26. Martinez J. 2. Ortega W. 20. Palma A. 22. Parra D. 5. Torres D. (C) 24. Vazquez B.	30. Garcia E. (G) 67. Aguayo S. 70. Castro A. 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 33. Martinez R. 50. Mendez F. 49. Moragrega V. 203. Nuno R. 44. Zamora S. (C)
Substitutes
9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 23. Esqueda D. 19. Gallegos D. 7. Islas O. 8. Martinez J. 85. Munoz J. (G) 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 30. Sandoval L.	74. Anaya M. 46. Egurrola L. 54. Freyfeld E. 198. Latorre D. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 62. Tellez B. 59. Torres C. 58. Uribe J. 69. Villaseca D.
Coaches
Ortiz M.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Aguayo S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Castro A. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
59', Figueroa F. ↓, Islas O. ↑,
64', Zamora S. 🟨,
73', Palma A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
73', Martinez J. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
75', Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
75', Aguayo S. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
82', Flores A. ↓, del Campo R. ↑,
86', Egurrola L. ↓, Torres C. ↑,
88', Moragrega V. ↓, Villaseca D. ↑,
90+3', Dominguez M. 🟨,
90+3', Villaseca D. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 0.

Atlético Morelia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tapatío is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Atlético Morelia is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWT
- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.01.25	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	1:0
02.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	1:4
17.02.24	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	0:0
17.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0
20.05.23	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:2
17.05.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	1:2
09.02.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	2:0

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