Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Referee: Barba A. (Mex)


	Tlaxcala		Tapatío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.25	3.4	2.82
	2.33	3.55	2.97
	2.3	3.38	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 (2.27)	3.41 ↓ (3.42)	2.85 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
40.6%

Draw
27%

Tapatío
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

27%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Tlaxcala - Tapatío Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Mendoza H. (G) 19. Castaneda S. 6. Gonzalez Martinez J. D. 2. Gonzalez P. 12. Lazaro J. 8. Plascencia F. 25. Rojas H. 11. Salomon O. 24. Sandoval E. 31. Silva J. 15. Tejeda D.	201. Liceaga J. (G) 67. Aguayo S. 42. Delgadillo D. 54. Freyfeld E. 225. Inda C. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 50. Mendez F. 59. Torres C. 69. Villaseca D. 44. Zamora S.
Substitutes
28. Becerra L. 18. Buganza F. 17. Castillo E. 4. Fabio Erins 22. Guerrero H. 1. Mata F. (G) 34. Morales A. 27. Partida F. 16. Solis E. 21. Zaragoza A.	74. Anaya M. 70. Castro A. 46. Egurrola L. 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 198. Latorre D. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 203. Nuno R. 62. Tellez B. 72. Villegas A.
Coaches
Fabian M.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Mendez F. 🟨,
37', Castaneda S. 🟨,
39', Aguayo S. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 0, Rojas H. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Inda C. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
46', Mendez F. ↓, Villegas A. ↑,
46', Torres C. ↓, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↑,
60', Salomon O. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
60', Sandoval E. ↓, Guerrero H. ↑,
68', 🟨,
70', Gonzalez Martinez J. D. ↓, Buganza F. ↑,
71', Rojas H. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
71', Villaseca D. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
71', Freyfeld E. ↓, Tellez B. ↑,
79', Plascencia F. 🟨,
82', Zamora S. 🟨,
84', Tejeda D. ↓, Solis E. ↑,
90+6', Guerrero H. 🟨,
90+6', Delgadillo D. 🟨,
90+10', Solis E. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 0.

Tlaxcala is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tapatío has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tlaxcala may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.25	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Tlaxcala - Correcaminos UAT	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Irapuato - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Cancún - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTLLL
- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:3 ✺
08.08.25	Venados - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
09.03.25	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	1:0
21.09.24	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	2:3
12.03.24	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	0:3
24.08.23	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	2:0
06.05.23	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	1:1
03.05.23	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	2:2
21.02.23	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	1:2

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