Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Guaycura (La Paz)


	Atlético La Paz		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.88	3.75	2.1
	3	4.16	2.16
	3.00	4.07	2.06	Watch
	2.78	4.31	2.09	Watch
	2.6	3.9	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.29)	4.04 ↑ (3.56)	2.13 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético La Paz
32.8%

Draw
23.2%

Atlético Morelia
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

26%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

25.1%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético La Paz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Atlético La Paz (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Atlético Morelia (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético La Paz (votes: 1 - 50%). Atlético Morelia (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Estrada J. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. 5. Bass A. 16. Del Aguila Y. 27. Garcia G. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 15. Torres H. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.	1. Torres A. (G) 11. Figueroa B. 10. Figueroa F. 28. Flores A. 13. Galindo J. 7. Islas O. 8. Martinez J. 2. Ortega W. 22. Parra D. 5. Torres D. (C) 24. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
33. Alcala G. (G) 17. Chiu L. 22. Flores R. 14. Galindo A. 8. Gutierrez L. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 11. Renteria R. 3. Rodriguez G. 26. Yanez J.	35. Anzar A. 9. del Campo R. 19. Gallegos D. 16. Garcia U. 15. Gutierrez A. 32. Moreno G. 85. Munoz G. J. (G) 17. Nambo M. 20. Palma A. 30. Sandoval L.
Coaches
Castillo H.	Adame G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Barragan M. ⚽, Millan O. (A),
17', Ortega W. 🟨,
23', Ortega W. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Alvarez D. ⚽,
34', Garcia G. 🟨,
45+1', 3 - 0, Barragan M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Martinez J. ↓, Anzar A. ↑,
46', Islas O. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
46', Galindo J. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
51', Parra D. 🟨,
62', Figueroa B. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
64', Torres H. 🟨,
67', Alvarez D. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
67', Bass A. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
67', Millan O. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
77', Flores A. ↓, del Campo R. ↑,
84', Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↓, Chiu L. ↑,
87', Hernandez D. 🟨,
88', Torres H. ↓, Flores R. ↑,
90+3', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 0.

Recent performances by Atlético La Paz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 1.2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético La Paz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.09.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	3:1 ✺
22.08.25	Venados - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
15.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:2 ✺
08.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Correcaminos UAT	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWTLT
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	5:0 ✺
09.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.03.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:1
27.09.24	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	0:1
09.01.24	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	1:1
10.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	2:0
19.01.23	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	3:3
18.09.22	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:2

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