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Current Win Probability
Atlético Nacional 71.8%
Draw 18.8%
Alianza Valledupar 9.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
68.6%
20.6%
10.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
72.7%
19.4%
10.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)
Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 4. Haydar C. 33. Velasquez S. 9. Morelos A. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 19. Rengifo J. 17. Arango C. 29. Sarmiento A.
12. Chaverra J. (G) 16. Rosales Y. 22. Figueroa J. 5. Franco P. (C) 26. Lasso J. 21. Cantillo F. 15. Esparragoza C. 17. Pardo F. 10. Fernandez W. 8. Munoz J. 29. Lucumi C.
Substitutes
27. Asprilla D. 10. Cardona E. 20. Casco M. 15. Castillo H. (G) 35. Lozano M. 7. Moreno M. 3. Parra N. 26. Rivero E. 13. Rodriguez N.
24. Banguero E. 27. Londono Y. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 28. Osorio J. 14. Villegas C. 23. Viveros J. 1. Wallens J. (G)
Coaches
Arias D.
Ayala C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Arango C. ⚽,
21', Arango C. 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Morelos A. ⚽,
38', Campuzano J. 🟨,
45+1', Roman A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Cantillo F. 🟨,
56', 3 - 0, Morelos A. ⚽, Rengifo J. (A),
62', Fernandez W. ↓, Villegas C. ↑,
62', Cantillo F. ↓, Meza Mercado E. W. ↑,
63', Pardo F. ↓, Londono Y. ↑,
64', Arango C. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
64', Sarmiento A. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
73', Morelos A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
73', Morelos A. 🟨,
73', Uribe M. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
73', Esparragoza C. 🟨,
76', Figueroa J. ↓, Viveros J. ↑,
76', Munoz J. ↓, Banguero E. ↑,
85', Campuzano J. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 20).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 3.
Atlético Nacional has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Alianza has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of home games.
In this match, Atlético Nacional is the undisputed favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:15. (average 2:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:5. (average 2.4:0.5).
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Ospina D. (C) 
Fernandez W. 
Casco M. 
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