Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 28 February 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)


	Atlético Nacional		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4	6.25
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4.09	7.8
	1.49	4.12	7.24
	1.5	4	6
	1.51	4	6.55	Watch
	1.48	3.9	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (3.08)	3.99 ↑ (3.11)	6.66 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
62.6%

Draw
23.4%

Nacional Asuncion
14%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.9%

29.6%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

29.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+32.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-26.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-32.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+26.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Atlético Nacional - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (G) 18. Ocampo E. 16. Mosquera S. 2. Bernardo 77. Angulo A. 8. Pabon D. 14. Mejia R. 10. Ceppelini P. 19. Mantilla D. 24. Ramirez E. 9. Duque J.	1. Silva A. (G) 17. Blasi B. 14. Nunez C. 5. Ojeda S. 25. Rivas L. 6. Alfaro J. 7. Orzusa E. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 23. Duarte D. 11. Caballero G. 38. Arevalo R.
Substitutes
15. Alvarez Wallace A. 23. Arias J. J. 39. Aristizabal E. 26. Cano A. 1. Castillo H. (G) 28. Garcia S. 31. Palacios Alzate B. 17. Salazar A. 4. Sierra C. 29. Torres E. 13. Torres Patino J. P. 33. Velasquez S.	31. Bazan N. 36. Benegas I. 10. Caballero Fleytas T. I. 26. Duarte E. 30. Galarza L. (G) 19. Gonzalez Fabricio 16. Gonzalez M. 13. Meza L. 32. Morel F. 35. Peralta F. (G) 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 8. Velazco F.
Coaches
Bodmer J.	Pumpido J. P.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Atlético Nacional has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Nacional Asuncion is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional Asuncion could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Atlético Nacional have a series of guest games.

In this match Atlético Nacional is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
25.02.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Nacional Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.02.24	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	3:2 ✺
11.02.24	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	0:1 ✺
08.02.24	Patriotas - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.02.24	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Nacional Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.02.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.02.24	Nacional Asuncion - SD Aucas	3:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.02.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Nacional Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Nacional Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0

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