Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Romero B. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	17:00	Tigo Sports
Usa	16:00	Fanatiz


	Nacional Asuncion		Sportivo Trinidense

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.20	Watch
	2.15	3.10	2.95
	2.07	3.15	3.35	Watch
	2.24	3.32	3.44
	2.32	3.17	3.14	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.40
	2.18	3.22	3.33	Watch
	2.17	3.20	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.31)	3.19 ↑ (3.15)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
42.5%

Draw
29%

Sportivo Trinidense
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.4%

29.6%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

30.8%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Sportivo Trinidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Trinidense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Sportivo Trinidense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (C) 23. Espinola C. 22. Melgarejo R. 3. Coronel M. 29. Vargas S. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 18. Valdez I. 8. Jara F. 13. Meza L. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 9. Benitez H. A.	12. Samudio V. (G) 23. Benitez C. 40. Da Silveira A. 6. Canete A. 4. Melgarejo D. 5. Gauto N. 21. Viera G. (C) 10. Mana N. 11. Abreu L. 31. Morinigo A. 20. Gonzalez C.
Substitutes
11. Almeida M. 7. Bailone I. 5. Benitez G. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 4. Gutierrez T. 36. Pelozo F. 32. Pumpido F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 6. Torales S. 38. Vega T. 35. Villar E. (G)	13. Barone F. 7. Camacho N. 19. Cano Esteche A. B. 30. Cornet R. 8. De la Cruz L. 1. Dufour M. (G) 22. Gamarra J. 9. Gimenez O. 37. Gonzalez L. 14. Mendoza S. 2. Ruiz Diaz A. 3. Villalba D.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Arrua J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Gauto N. 🟨,
31', Arrua J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Benitez H. A. 🟨,
61', Mana N. ↓, Gamarra J. ↑,
65', Valdez I. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
69', Melgarejo D. ↓, Mendoza S. ↑,
69', Abreu L. ↓, De la Cruz L. ↑,
77', Coronel M. 🟨,
77', Gutierrez T. 🟨,
79', Jara F. ↓, Gaona Lugo O. ↑,
79', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,
82', Gonzalez C. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
82', Gauto N. ↓, Camacho N. ↑,
85', Melgarejo R. 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Gamarra J. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 3rd and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Nacional has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sportivo Trinidense is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, Sportivo Trinidense has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 6 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:21 (averaging 1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with 7:12 goals (averaging 0.8:1.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sportivo Trinidense	16	9	3	4	26:14	12	30
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	8	5	3	23:9	14	29

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.42%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Trinidense - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.93%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.10.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:2 ✺
12.10.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
06.10.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTLT
- Sportivo Trinidense
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.10.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
05.10.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo Luqueño	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
15.08.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
09.05.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
01.11.25	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	0:0
Copa Paraguay
02.10.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 penalties
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.08.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:2
20.05.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	2:0

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