Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 20

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Nacional Asuncion		Sportivo Trinidense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.15	3.05	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.54
	2.24	3.03	3.47	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.3
	2.21	3.07	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.97)	3.02 ↓ (3.2)	3.33 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
42%

Draw
30.5%

Sportivo Trinidense
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

29.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

28.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Sportivo Trinidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Trinidense than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Sportivo Trinidense will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (G) 21. Feliu J. 4. Gutierrez T. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 29. Vargas S. 8. Jara F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 27. Prieto R. 9. Benitez H. A. 24. Santa C. R. (C)	1. Dufour M. (G) 6. Canete A. 34. Roman Torales F. J. 30. Valdez B. 4. Melgarejo D. 8. De la Cruz L. (C) 21. Viera G. 37. Gonzalez L. 29. Rayer T. 7. Camacho N. 31. Morinigo A.
Substitutes
7. Bailone I. 5. Benitez G. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 26. Coronel M. 23. Espinola C. 32. Garrone M. 19. Gonzales L. 13. Meza L. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J. 6. Torales S.	11. Baez Mendoza R. 19. Cano Esteche A. B. 40. Da Silveira A. 5. Gauto N. 9. Gimenez O. 20. Gonzalez C. 10. Mana N. 14. Mendoza S. 18. Romero F. 2. Ruiz Diaz A. 12. Samudio V. (G) 22. Zarza P.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Arrua J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Feliu J. 🟥,
29', 0 - 1, Camacho N. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↓, Coronel M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gonzalez L. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
54', Prieto R. 🟨,
62', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
62', Benitez H. A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
63', Canete A. 🟨,
65', Camacho N. ↓, Gimenez O. ↑,
65', Morinigo A. ↓, Baez Mendoza R. ↑,
69', De la Cruz L. ↓, Gauto N. ↑,
69', Canete A. ↓, Ruiz Diaz A. ↑,
72', Vargas S. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Bailone I. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Vargas S. ↓, Benitez G. ↑,
85', Santa C. R. ↓, Gonzales L. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Bailone I. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.6:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23
5	Sportivo Trinidense	13	7	2	4	23:13	10	23

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.46%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
24.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTTL
- Sportivo Trinidense
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.05.26	Sportivo Trinidense - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
17.04.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Rubio Ñu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
01.11.25	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	0:0
Copa Paraguay
02.10.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 penalties
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.08.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:2
20.05.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	2:0
17.03.25	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1
21.09.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:2

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