Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 31 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Río Parapití (Pedro Juan Caballero)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	2 de Mayo		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2	Watch
	3.3	3	2.18	Watch
	3.81	3.19	2.13
	3.37	3.16	2.22	Watch
	3.55	3.03	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.31)	3.1 ↑ (3.05)	2.14 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

2 de Mayo
26.5%

Draw
30%

Nacional Asuncion
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

30.2%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.8%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

2 de Mayo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 2 de Mayo than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional Asuncion will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez A. (G) 16. Espinola A. 21. Sosa P. (C) 5. Saiz C. 19. Castro C. 20. Sanabria S. 17. Delvalle P. 30. Farina A. 24. Romero O. 7. Alfonso E. 23. Caceres Aguero F. M.	30. Rojas S. (G) 23. Espinola C. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 4. Gutierrez T. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 10. Arrua C. 8. Jara F. 33. Gaona Lugo O. (C) 18. Valdez I. 27. Prieto R. 19. Gonzales L.
Substitutes
27. Acosta D. 2. Barreto M. 8. Colman O. 11. Coronel U. 15. Davalos Valdez V. 32. Diaz J. 26. Fretes S. D. 22. Gaona W. 3. Ibarrola W. 4. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 9. Ruiz Diaz R. 12. Servin C. (G)	11. Almeida M. 7. Bailone I. 9. Benitez H. A. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 14. Diaz F. 21. Feliu J. 13. Meza L. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J. 6. Torales S. 29. Vargas S.
Coaches
Ledesma E.	Gimenez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Gutierrez T. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Alfonso E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↓, Santacruz J. ↑,
61', Arrua C. ↓, Colman Escobar D. J. ↑,
71', Alfonso E. ↓, Fretes S. D. ↑,
71', Caceres Aguero F. M. ↓, Acosta D. ↑,
72', Espinola A. ↓, Davalos Valdez V. ↑,
74', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
74', Valdez I. ↓, Benitez H. A. ↑,
82', Colman Escobar D. J. 🟨,
83', Castro C. ↓, Coronel U. ↑,
83', Gonzales L. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Bailone I. ⚽, Samudio A. (A),
88', Farina A. ↓, Ruiz Diaz R. ↑,
90+3', Benitez H. A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 2 de Mayo won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

2 de Mayo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, 2 de Mayo has had a series of away games.

Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, 2 de Mayo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, 2 de Mayo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	2 de Mayo	13	7	4	2	16:13	3	25
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.91%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS 2 de Mayo
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.03.26	Olimpia Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	4:1 ✺
25.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - 2 de Mayo	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LTWTL
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
27.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	1:0 ✺
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
31.01.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	5:1
17.10.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	1:0
02.08.25	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:1
06.04.25	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:0
25.01.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	0:0
16.10.24	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:0
Copa Paraguay
09.10.24	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	2:1

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