Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Alfonso Lastras (San Luis Potosí)

Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atlético San Luis		Toluca

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.1	1.76	Watch
	3.8	3.8	1.82
	3.7	3.95	1.82	Watch
	5.49	4.67	1.55
	3.8	3.5	1.75
	3.91	3.92	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (4.18)	3.99 ↑ (3.98)	1.75 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético San Luis
22.9%

Draw
23.5%

Toluca
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

23.5%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

23%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	0%	94.4%

Atlético San Luis - Toluca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Toluca (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez A. (G) 2. Torres R. 6. Juanpe 31. Aguila E. 18. Cruz A. 13. Rodrigo Dourado 24. Najera R. 19. Salles-Lamonge S. (C) 10. Klimowicz M. 9. Joao Pedro Galvao 22. Yan Phillipe	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 19. Simon S. 6. Pereira F. 4. Bruno Mendez 20. Gallardo J. 14. Ruiz M. 5. Romero F. 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
25. Barajas F. 4. Dominguez J. 7. Galdames B. 14. Garcia M. 15. Guillen D. 34. Lajud G. (G) 16. Marchand J. 26. Perez S. 29. Suarez J. 62. Tepa	35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 22. Garcia L. (G) 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 31. Morales R. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Abascal G.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', Vega A. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Vega A. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
32', Juanpe 🟨,
35', Salles-Lamonge S. 🟨,
40', Joao Pedro Galvao 🟨,
44', Yan Phillipe 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 2, Torres R. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Torres R. ↓, Suarez J. ↑,
47', Romero F. 🟨,
58', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
58', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
61', 0 - 3, Morales R. ⚽,
65', 1 - 3, Najera R. ⚽, Salles-Lamonge S. (A),
67', Yan Phillipe ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
67', Najera R. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
67', Juanpe ↓, Guillen D. ↑,
69', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
85', Klimowicz M. ↓, Galdames B. ↑,
88', Vega A. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
88', Romero F. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
90+9', Aguila E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlético San Luis has had a series of away games.

Toluca could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I. (Knee Injury) Sanabria J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Macias O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético San Luis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético San Luis - the odds 4.18 are the expected chance of winning is 22.37%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Toluca - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.14%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX
22.08.25	Querétaro - Atlético San Luis	3:2 ✺
15.08.25	Puebla - Atlético San Luis	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Minnesota United - Atlético San Luis	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Real Salt Lake - Atlético San Luis	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 LWLWW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
23.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
20.08.25	Toluca - Orlando City	0:1 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Toluca - UNAM	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.25	Toluca - New York City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
16.04.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	0:1
25.08.24	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	2:1
19.04.24	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:5
29.10.23	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	3:1
26.02.23	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	2:0
21.08.22	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:0
12.02.22	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	0:1

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