Match Info

Leagues Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Dignity Health Sports Park (Carson, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, TUDN
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	MLS Season Pass, TUDN


	Toluca		Orlando City

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.7	2.63	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3
	2.45	3.65	2.58	Watch
	2.5	3.85	2.67
	2.41	3.71	2.64	Watch
	2.45	3.7	2.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.92)	3.7 ↑ (3.52)	2.7 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
39.7%

Draw
25.4%

Orlando City
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

26.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

28.2%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.

Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orlando City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orlando City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	18.2%	36.4%

Toluca - Orlando City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Orlando City will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Orlando City (3.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Toluca (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Toluca (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 40%). Orlando City (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 14. Ruiz M. 5. Romero F. 26. Paulinho 10. Angulo J. 11. Castro H. 9. Vega A.	1. Gallese P. (G) 30. Freeman A. 15. Schlegel R. 6. Jansson R. 4. Brekalo D. 87. Pasalic M. 20. Atuesta E. 5. Araujo C. 77. Angulo I. 9. Muriel L. 10. Ojeda M.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 8. Castro N. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 31. Morales R. 23. Virgen O.	65. Caraballo G. 7. Enrique R. 35. Gerbet J. 25. Guske C. 21. Marin A. 99. Mercado C. (G) 12. Otero J. (G) 11. Rodriguez N. 24. Smith K. 14. Spicer T. 96. Taifi Z. 17. Thorhallsson D.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Pareja O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Pereira F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Castro H. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
63', Brekalo D. 🟨,
64', Schlegel R. 🟨,
67', Muriel L. ↓, Enrique R. ↑,
76', Atuesta E. 🟨,
76', Angulo J. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
81', Pasalic M. ↓, Taifi Z. ↑,
85', Brekalo D. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
85', Atuesta E. ↓, Gerbet J. ↑,
86', Ruiz M. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
86', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Vega A. (Pen),
1, Ojeda M. (Pen),
2, Pereira F. (Pen),
2, Jansson R. (Pen),
3, Morales R. (Pen),
3, Freeman A. (Pen),
4, Gallardo J. (Pen),
4, Gerbet J. (Pen),
5, Romero F. (Pen),
5, Smith K. (Pen),
6, Castro N. (Pen),
6, Enrique R. (Pen),
7, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (Pen),
7, Gallese P. (Pen),

Preview

Neutral location - Dignity Health Sports Park.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Toluca - UNAM	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.25	Toluca - New York City	2:1 ✺
01.08.25	Toluca - CF Montréal	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Toluca - Columbus Crew	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWWT
- Orlando City
MLS
16.08.25	Orlando City - Sporting Kansas City	3:1 ✺
10.08.25	Orlando City - Inter Miami	4:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Orlando City - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
02.08.25	Orlando City - Atlas	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	UNAM - Orlando City	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL

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