Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 2

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, FOX One
Usa	SportsEngine Play, TUDN


	Toluca		UNAM

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.20	5.75	Watch
	1.57	4.10	5.25
	1.55	4.25	5.20	Watch
	1.60	4.38	5.49
	1.62	4.17	5.13	Watch
	1.59	4.25	5.40
	1.62	4.26	5.31	Watch
	1.56	4.20	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.65)	4.23 ↑ (3.93)	5.34 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
59.9%

Draw
22.4%

UNAM
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toluca - UNAM Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 13. Luan 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 24. Arce F. 7. Guzman V. 10. Angulo J. 11. Helinho 9. Vega A. (C) 29. Diaz Price J.	1. Navas K. (C) 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 5. Duarte R. 77. Angulo A. 7. Lopez R. 45. Vite P. 21. Antuna U. 31. Morales R. 18. Arteaga V. 23. Juninho
Substitutes
3. Briseno A. 191. Carrillo C. 8. Castro N. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 22. Garcia L. (G) 35. Gutierrez E. 6. Pereira F. 5. Romero F. 19. Simon S.	34. Azuaje A. 12. Calderon C. 199. Carranza K. 17. Cordova S. 203. Garcia S. 35. Lara P. (G) 24. Leone T. 9. Martinez G. 22. Medina A. 20. Trigos S.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Diaz Price J. ⚽, Helinho (A),
17', Helinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Bennevendo P. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Arteaga V. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
63', 1 - 2, Cordova S. ⚽, Lopez R. (A),
66', Guzman V. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
66', Angulo J. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
66', Vega A. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
76', Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↓, Carrillo C. ↑,
80', Lopez R. 🟨,
86', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
88', Juninho ↓, Medina A. ↑,
90+1', Morales R. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
90+6', Antuna U. ↓, Leone T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.

UNAM has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

There will not play in Toluca: Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in UNAM: Macias J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Virgen O. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:29. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
13	UNAM Pumas	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
18.07.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Cancún - Toluca	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
30.05.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
10.05.26	Pachuca - Toluca	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
06.05.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWLW
- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
18.07.26	UNAM - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	UNAM - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
04.07.26	Cancún - UNAM	0:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
24.05.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Cruz Azul - UNAM	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
03.03.26	UNAM - Toluca	2:3
16.08.25	Toluca - UNAM	1:1
29.01.25	UNAM - Toluca	1:1
05.10.24	Toluca - UNAM	1:1
17.03.24	Toluca - UNAM	3:0
18.08.23	UNAM - Toluca	1:1
16.04.23	UNAM - Toluca	3:1

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