Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Ismuratov A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Atyrau		Kyzylzhar

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.28	Watch
	3.27	3.05	2.35
	3.08	3.07	2.29	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.25
	3.17	3.12	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.6)	3.03 ↑ (2.95)	2.3 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
29.4%

Draw
30.5%

Kyzylzhar
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

31.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

31.3%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atyrau's form might have worsened.

Kyzylzhar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kyzylzhar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atyrau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyzylzhar than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kyzylzhar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atyrau - Kyzylzhar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 78. Khvalko E. 6. Yudenkov R. 5. Satanov S. 2. Tkachenko Y. 10. Dzhumatov R. (C) 55. Noyok O. 17. Kalmuratov K. 14. Dorofeev K. 4. Rabiu M. 18. Trufanov Y.	1. Celeadnic D. (G) 25. Galabov P. 26. Kerimzhanov O. (C) 22. Kozlenko A. 11. Cheredinov A. 23. Piscevic N. 19. Krajisnik D. 47. Gomis H. 10. Bjartalid J. 99. Beugre E. 9. Adil A.
Substitutes
9. Abdulla A. 27. Berdesh N. 7. Henrique 99. Kereev B. 21. Orynbasar D. 77. Pangerey M. 12. Sagat N. (G) 11. Seytkaliev A. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 90. Yusov D. 25. Zhumagali S.	13. Baoken S. 28. Chirkov R. 17. Eleukin M. 39. Erniyazov S. (G) 27. Gubarev N. 8. Makarenko E. 7. Muldinov T. 32. Petrov V. (G) 5. Slambekov D. 71. Sokolenko A. 79. Valgushev G.
Coaches
Cheburin V.	Curcic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Gomis H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Trufanov Y. ↓, Yusov D. ↑,
70', Piscevic N. 🟨,
70', Gomis H. ↓, Sokolenko A. ↑,
70', Adil A. ↓, Muldinov T. ↑,
77', Dorofeev K. ↓, Henrique ↑,
79', Cheredinov A. 🟨,
83', Bjartalid J. ↓, Baoken S. ↑,
84', Beugre E. ↓, Chirkov R. ↑,
86', Kalmuratov K. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 1, Muldinov T. ⚽, Piscevic N. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 2.

Atyrau is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kyzylzhar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atyrau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kyzylzhar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Kyzylzhar	26	6	6	14	26:40	-14	24
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Last Results with these Odds

Kyzylzhar - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.45%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Atyrau - Kaisar	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Jas Qyran - Atyrau	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Ordabasy - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Atyrau - Zhenis	0:0 ✺
16.03.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWTTT
- FC Kyzylzhar
Kazakh Premier League
12.04.26	Kyzylzhar - Zhenis	4:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Khan Tengri - Kyzylzhar	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Kaisar - Kyzylzhar	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Kyzylzhar - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.03.26	Ulytau - Kyzylzhar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
20.07.25	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	0:1
19.04.25	Atyrau - Kyzylzhar	1:2
20.10.24	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	3:2
27.04.24	Atyrau - Kyzylzhar	2:0
16.09.23	Atyrau - Kyzylzhar	0:0
08.04.23	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	1:0
15.10.22	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	3:1

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