Match Info

National - Round 34

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny (Aubagne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	FIFA+


	Aubagne		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.55	2.12
	2.97	3.65	2.32
	2.71	3.49	2.29	Watch
	3	3.3	2
	3.35	3.56	2.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.08)	3.51 ↑ (3.19)	2.15 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
30.8%

Draw
26.3%

Caen
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

28.7%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

27.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Aubagne - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Aubagne will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Caen will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moreira T. (G) 13. Abdallah M. 15. Mimb Baheng R. 26. Nehari M. (C) 8. Rocchia C. 18. Oudjani A. 6. Tafni A. 33. Hamadi K. 28. Bentoumi M. 32. Curis I. 34. El Kaddouri B.	16. Clementia Y. (C) 17. Labonne R. 26. Etuin M. 23. Morante L. 3. Bolumbu D. 25. Bagbema Z. 14. Rajot L. 22. Hafid M. 5. Dali Amar B. 19. Botella I. 9. Duville-Parsemain A.
Substitutes
4. Diaby A. 36. Madi K. 14. Mayilla E. 12. M'Dahoma K.	11. Gnanduillet A. 34. Gomis S. 24. Milliner L. 32. Portut K. 21. Tome G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Rocchia C. ↓, Madi K. ↑,
29', 1 - 0, Bentoumi M. ⚽, Madi K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', Dali Amar B. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
58', Curis I. ↓, Mayilla E. ↑,
60', Tafni A. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Botella I. ⚽, Rajot L. (A),
64', Hafid M. 🟨,
72', Tafni A. ↓, Diaby A. ↑,
73', Ahamada S. ↓, Berrehail P. ↑,
74', Botella I. ↓, Gnanduillet A. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Mayilla E. ⚽,
90', Mayilla E. 🟨,
90+1', Bagbema Z. ↓, Tome G. ↑,
90+1', Labonne R. ↓, Gomis S. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Bentoumi M. ⚽, Mayilla E. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).

Recent form of Aubagne has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caen is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Caen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Aubagne won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 29.71%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
09.05.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Aubagne - Stade Briochin	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Rouen FC - Aubagne	3:1 ✺
17.04.26	Aubagne - Orleans	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Le Puy - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLLLW
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
09.05.26	Caen - Concarneau	0:0 ✺
24.04.26	Caen - Villefranche	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Caen	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Caen	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Caen - Stade Briochin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
08.08.25	Caen - Aubagne	3:0

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