What is the expert prediction for Caen vs Concarneau?

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Caen vs Concarneau Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 09, 2026)

Match Info

National - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Caen		Concarneau

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.5	3
	2.05	3.5	3.1
	2.14	3.62	3.3
	2.17	3.35	3	Watch
	2	3.25	3
	2.06	3.36	3.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.28)	3.43 ↑ (3.17)	3.09 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
44%

Draw
26.5%

Concarneau
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

28.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

28%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Concarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concarneau than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

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Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Clementia Y. (G) 17. Labonne R. 24. Milliner L. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 3. Bolumbu D. 25. Bagbema Z. 14. Rajot L. 22. Hafid M. 27. Debohi D. 19. Botella I. 9. Duville-Parsemain A.	1. Viot V. (G) 23. Goujon L. 27. Halby J. 4. Jannez G. (C) 6. Seba D. 26. Sinquin T. 10. Gbelle G. 18. Da Silva F. 3. Inquel S. 9. Tell J. 21. Baldoni S.
Substitutes
5. Dali Amar B. 11. Gnanduillet A. 23. Morante L. 32. Portut K. 21. Tome G.	20. Ntumi M. 40. Patron P. (G) 25. Seydi A. 11. Soukouna Y. 7. Varvat J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Inquel S. 🟨,
38', Seba D. ↓, Seydi A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Milliner L. 🟨,
64', Tell J. ↓, Soukouna Y. ↑,
64', Baldoni S. ↓, Varvat J. ↑,
67', Milliner L. ↓, Dali Amar B. ↑,
71', Debohi D. ↓, Morante L. ↑,
72', Botella I. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
75', Da Silva F. ↓, Ntumi M. ↑,
89', Sinquin T. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 10).

Caen is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Concarneau has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Concarneau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Caen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Caen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Caen won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	8:4	4	6
9	Concarneau	3	1	1	1	3:3	0	4

Last Results with these Odds

Caen - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.13%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Concarneau - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
24.04.26	Caen - Villefranche	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Caen	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Caen	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Caen - Stade Briochin	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Rouen FC - Caen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWTT
- US Concarneau
French Ligue 3
30.04.26	Concarneau - Paris 13 Atletico	0:0 ✺
24.04.26	Stade Briochin - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Concarneau - Rouen FC	0:0 ✺
10.04.26	Orleans - Concarneau	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Concarneau - Le Puy	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
16.01.26	Concarneau - Caen	3:3
French Ligue 2
13.01.24	Caen - Concarneau	1:0
19.08.23	Concarneau - Caen	0:2
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Caen - Concarneau	0:0

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