Match Info

National - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Aubagne		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.15	2.42
	2.91	3.28	2.49
	3.13	3.25	2.15	Watch
	2.8	3.18	2.41	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.12)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	2.33 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
31.5%

Draw
28.8%

Valenciennes
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

28.6%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28.6%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Valenciennes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	54.5%	9.1%

Aubagne - Valenciennes Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Aubagne will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Valenciennes will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Valenciennes (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Gil J. (G) 26. Nehari M. (C) 15. Mimb Baheng R. 12. M'Dahoma K. 13. Abdallah M. 4. Diaby A. 27. Daou R. 34. El Kaddouri B. 10. Boudraa S. 14. Mayilla E. 7. Chaban K.	1. Louchet J. (G) 29. Coeff A. 4. Landre L. 24. Thomas R. (C) 17. Diomande A. 22. Boissier R. 8. Rouai M. 28. Wahib A. 11. Appuah S. 33. Takaoka R. 10. Ipiele A.
Substitutes
21. Ali Hamidou N. D. 28. Bentoumi M. 5. Chibani N. 39. Doukara S. 23. Hamek M.	7. Baghdadi S. 26. Diomande D. 23. Kouakou K. 20. Koum Mbondo A. 32. Niakate S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Boudraa S. ⚽,
22', Wahib A. 🟨,
29', Boudraa S. 🟨,
29', Coeff A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wahib A. ↓, Koum Mbondo A. ↑,
50', Rouai M. 🟨,
54', Mayilla E. 🟨,
63', Boudraa S. ↓, Bentoumi M. ↑,
69', Appuah S. ↓, Diomande D. ↑,
71', Koum Mbondo A. 🟨,
76', Bentoumi M. 🟨,
79', Chaban K. ↓, Hamek M. ↑,
79', Coeff A. ↓, Kouakou K. ↑,
79', Ipiele A. ↓, Baghdadi S. ↑,
85', Abdallah M. ↓, Ali Hamidou N. D. ↑,
85', El Kaddouri B. ↓, Chibani N. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Rouai M. ⚽,
89', Chibani N. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aubagne won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Including home match between the teams, Aubagne won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.36%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
17.10.25	Sochaux - Aubagne	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Aubagne - Dijon	1:1 ✺
26.09.25	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Aubagne - Versailles	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Quevilly - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTWTW
- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 3
17.10.25	Valenciennes - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
26.09.25	Valenciennes - Villefranche	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Caen - Valenciennes	0:0 ✺
12.09.25	Valenciennes - Paris 13 Atletico	1:0 ✺
05.09.25	Stade Briochin - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
16.05.25	Aubagne - Valenciennes	0:3
16.08.24	Valenciennes - Aubagne	1:0

Aubagne - Valenciennes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide