Match Info

Virsliga - Round 33

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday

Location: Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	BFC Daugavpils		Auda Riga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.40	2.10
	2.95	3.45	2.12	Watch
	2.79	3.7	2.12
	2.86	3.9	2.16	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.07
	2.86	3.62	2.07	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.28)	3.57 ↑ (3.47)	2.11 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFC Daugavpils
31.5%

Draw
25.4%

Auda Riga
43.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.6%

26.1%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

24.9%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Auda Riga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BFC Daugavpils that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auda Riga than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Auda Riga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 8. Skrebels R. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 11. Yakubu J. 19. Pinaskins E. 9. Traore A. 97. Kivinda D.	1. Sturins R. (G) 2. Hrvoj T. (C) 6. Kragliks R. 3. Balodis D. 66. Jaunzems A. 14. Ibrahim H. 23. Fofana M. 77. Minins J. 10. Fofana W. 46. Gerold J. 7. Appiah A.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 6. Barkovskis N. 66. Bujanovs K. 33. Cucurs D. 27. Kopilovs M. 2. Ogijenko N. 58. Razumejevs V. (G) 42. Saveljevs A.	12. Aleksandrovs N. (G) 80. Aranda S. 21. Bocs R. 8. Bongemba E. 17. Daskevics E. 42. Fofana M. 22. Ogunji A. 4. Ouedraogo M. 20. Traore Y.
Coaches
Kurbatov K.	Zanetti D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Kivinda D. ⚽, Pinaskins E. (A),
31', Ibrahim H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Appiah A. (Penalty Awarded),
57', 2 - 1, Pinaskins E. ⚽, Kivinda D. (A),
67', Fofana M. ↓, Daskevics E. ↑,
67', Minins J. ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
67', Jaunzems A. ↓, Ogunji A. ↑,
67', Fofana W. ↓, Bongemba E. ↑,
74', Hrvoj T. 🟨,
82', Traore A. ↓, Ayebadiepreye D. ↑,
83', Kragliks R. ↓, Ouedraogo M. ↑,

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Auda ✔	33	19	7	7	53:34	19	64
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39:37	2	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
11.10.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
02.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTLTL
- Auda Riga
Latvian Virsliga
12.10.26	Liepāja - Auda Riga	2:3 ✺
20.09.26	Auda Riga - RFS	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Riga - Auda Riga	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Auda Riga - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Cup
02.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	2:3 penalties
Latvian Virsliga
26.07.26	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:0
26.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	0:1
12.04.26	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	2:3
05.10.25	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	1:0
20.07.25	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:3
20.05.25	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1

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