Match Info

Virsliga - Round 27

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Skonto stadions (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, Virsliga Plus
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Auda Riga		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.36	4.60	6.25
	1.36	4.3	7.3	Watch
	1.43	5.12	6.2
	1.42	4.92	6.12	Watch
	1.29	5.65	7.8
	1.33	5.57	7.24	Watch
	1.31	4.8	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.66)	4.99 ↑ (3.98)	6.79 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auda Riga
67.9%

Draw
18.5%

Tukums 2000
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

23.3%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

22.2%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auda Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Auda Riga's performance.

Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tukums 2000 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auda Riga than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Auda Riga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tukums 2000 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Auda Riga - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Auda (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Auda (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Auda Riga will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Auda (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Purins N. (C) 21. Bocs R. 6. Kragliks R. 4. Ouedraogo M. 80. Aranda S. 77. Minins J. 25. Diedhiou B. 30. Pena B. 10. Fofana W. 46. Gerold J. 7. Appiah A.	1. Vilkovs S. (G) 28. Melkis R. 6. Volkovs K. 25. Joksts H. 88. Stals M. 21. Valmiers D. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 5. Toba J. 4. Anmanis Kaspars 11. Leoni 27. Deruzinskis R.
Substitutes
8. Bongemba E. 17. Daskevics E. 42. Fofana M. 23. Fofana M. 2. Hrvoj T. 47. Kone K. 71. Rubenis O. 1. Sturins R. (G) 20. Traore Y.	18. Calbergs D. 16. Klavins K. 12. Kuprins A. (G) 19. Radzenieks D. 29. Shigema K. 22. Sprukts E. 30. Susts M.
Coaches
Zanetti D.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Appiah A. ⚽, Diedhiou B. (A),
36', Anmanis Kaspars 🟨,
36', Pena B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Fofana W. 🟨,
54', Pena B. ↓, Daskevics E. ↑,
54', Fofana W. ↓, Bongemba E. ↑,
63', Toba J. ↓, Shigema K. ↑,
63', Melkis R. ↓, Klavins K. ↑,
63', Gerold J. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Minins J. ⚽,
69', Bocs R. ↓, Rubenis O. ↑,
69', Diedhiou B. ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Kone K. ⚽,
76', Leoni ↓, Radzenieks D. ↑,
76', Deruzinskis R. ↓, Sprukts E. ↑,
86', Valmiers D. ↓, Susts M. ↑,
89', Joksts H. 🟨,
89', Volkovs K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 9 in the zone Virsliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auda won 2.

Auda is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tukums 2000 has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Auda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Auda is considered a favorite.

We predict that Auda will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Auda won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Auda won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Auda	31	18	7	6	49:30	19	61
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24

Last Results with these Odds

Tukums 2000 - the odds 4.47 are the expected chance of winning is 20.76%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auda Riga
Latvian Cup
17.08.26	Auda Riga - Grobiņa	3:2 AET ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Dinamo City - Auda Riga	4:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
09.08.26	Jelgava - Auda Riga	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
04.08.26	Auda Riga - Dinamo City	1:0 ✺
30.07.26	Auda Riga - FCSB	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLWWW
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
08.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Tukums 2000	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
27.07.26	Tukums 2000 - RFS	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Riga - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
11.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
17.06.26	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:1
26.04.26	Auda Riga - Tukums 2000	2:1
02.11.25	Auda Riga - Tukums 2000	0:1
10.08.25	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	1:0
13.06.25	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:4
18.04.25	Auda Riga - Tukums 2000	2:0
03.11.24	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	0:3

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