Match Info

Latvian Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums)


	Tukums 2000		Super Nova

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.30	3.00
	1.92	3.35	3.40
	1.97	3.70	3.65
	3.63	2.59	2.35	Watch
	1.95	3.65	3.25
	1.99	3.44	3.26	Watch
	1.72	3.70	3.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.41)	3.39 ↑ (3.26)	3.23 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tukums 2000
43.3%

Draw
27.7%

Super Nova
29.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.1%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tukums 2000 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tukums 2000's performance.

Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Super Nova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Tukums 2000 - Super Nova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Baturins I. (G) 4. Anmanis Kaspars 17. Derkach M. 27. Deruzinskis R. 18. Dusalijevs N. 19. Radzenieks D. 8. Reingolcs R. 10. Samoilovs B. 7. Shibata S. 5. Toba J. 6. Volkovs K.	31. Petrovics T. (G) 29. Baghdasaryan A. 9. Bamba 7. Glaudans A. 3. Iida R. 20. Ndiaye I. 25. Oss M. 27. Pathe N. 16. Romanovs K. 24. Sitjakovs R. 26. Sylla I.
Substitutes
12. Ivanausks I. (G) 25. Joksts H. 16. Klavins K. 11. Leoni 24. Matsubara T. 28. Melkis R. 88. Stals M. 30. Susts M. 21. Valmiers D.	4. Berzins L. 5. Cirulis J. 6. Emsis E. 19. Grikovs A. 32. Kirss R. 10. Lizunovs V. 30. Strelcovs I. 21. Tihonovics M. 90. Veisbuks D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Toba J. 🟥,
22', Radzenieks D. ↓, Joksts H. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 0, Samoilovs B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Baghdasaryan A. ↓, Tihonovics M. ↑,
46', Pathe N. ↓, Lizunovs V. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Lizunovs V. ⚽,
65', Sylla I. ↓, Emsis E. ↑,
65', Glaudans A. ↓, Kirss R. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Bamba ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tukums 2000 won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Tukums 2000 - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 37.73%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
05.07.26	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
01.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2 ✺
21.06.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	4:1 ✺
17.06.26	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLLW
- Super Nova FC
Latvian Virsliga
06.07.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	1:2 ✺
01.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
25.06.26	Super Nova - Jelgava	1:5 ✺
21.06.26	Super Nova - Auda Riga	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
01.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2
11.05.26	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:1
22.03.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2
28.09.25	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	2:1
06.07.25	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:0
16.05.25	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:1
31.03.25	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	2:2

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