Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 23

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	Augšdaugavas		Smiltene

	1	X	2
	4.55	4.15	1.55
	4.04	3.41	1.81	Watch
	4.15	3.4	1.8
	4.23	3.4	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↑ (4.07)	3.59 ↑ (3.3)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augšdaugavas
21.6%

Draw
25.5%

Smiltene
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

27.6%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

26.3%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augšdaugavas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Smiltene has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augšdaugavas than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smiltene than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Augšdaugavas - Smiltene Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Fastov A. (G) 5. Bleive J. 2. Borisovs E. 10. Churney D. 3. Kharchilava S. 8. Kovalovs A. 9. Linards R. 25. Petersons M. 99. Quaye D. 11. Shokun O. 7. Volosovs T.	95. Sausais D. (G) 4. Bleikss R. 10. Bokta M. 21. Cipruss S. 2. Klots R. 7. Lapins J. 3. Mikelsons M. 15. Sislakovs R. 88. Stipnieks E. 22. Zauska R. 9. Zvirbulis K.
Substitutes
77. Haritonovs M. 22. Kirikovs A. 70. Kitsel V. 14. Neverovskis K. 20. Vinokurovs A.	99. Eglitis E. (G) 16. Gaismins V. 19. Krasts R. 77. Snepsts K. 40. Stupelis O. 11. Tomass E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Bleikss R. ⚽,
25', 0 - 2, Bokta M. ⚽,
26', Petersons M. 🟨,
39', Borisovs E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Lapins J. ↓, Stupelis O. ↑,
61', Zauska R. ↓, Gaismins V. ↑,
63', 🟨,
63', Bleikss R. 🟨,
67', Gaismins V. 🟨,
69', 0 - 3, Gaismins V. ⚽,
70', Petersons M. ↓, Neverovskis K. ↑,
72', Bleikss R. ↓, Krasts R. ↑,
75', 1 - 3, Kovalovs A. ⚽,
76', Klots R. ↓, Tomass E. ↑,
76', Zvirbulis K. ↓, Snepsts K. ↑,
82', Churney D. ↓, Kitsel V. ↑,
90+3', Quaye D. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Both teams are on a losing streak in recent matches.

In this match, Smiltene is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Augšdaugava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, Augšdaugava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Augšdaugavas NSS
Latvian 1 Liga
04.10.25	Riga Mariners - Augšdaugavas	3:3 ✺
27.09.25	Augšdaugavas - Rēzekne	0:5 ✺
21.09.25	Augšdaugavas - Tukums 2000 2	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ogre United - Augšdaugavas	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Augšdaugavas - JFK Ventspils	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 TLLLL
- FK Smiltene BJSS
Latvian 1 Liga
05.10.25	Smiltene - Tukums 2000 2	0:3 ✺
27.09.25	Ogre United - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Smiltene - JFK Ventspils	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Olaine - Smiltene	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Leevon PPK - Smiltene	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
14.06.25	Smiltene - Augšdaugavas	5:0
25.11.23	Smiltene - Augšdaugavas	3:0
19.11.23	Augšdaugavas - Smiltene	3:1

Augšdaugavas - Smiltene: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide