Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday


	Portugalete		Leioa

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.15
	1.55	3.66	5.47
	1.56	3.69	5.67
	1.57	3.4	5.5
	1.57	3.52	5.54
	1.54	3.6	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)	3.56 ↑ (3.53)	5.5 ↓ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Portugalete
58.1%

Draw
25.5%

Leioa
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.8%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

24.7%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Leioa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (-1%)

Portugalete - Leioa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, De Eguino I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 1.

Portugalete is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leioa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Portugalete is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Portugalete won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
14.12.25	Eibar C - Portugalete	0:5 ✺
06.12.25	Portugalete - Añorga	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Portugalete - Deportivo Alavés	0:3 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.11.25	Durango - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTW
- SD Leioa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
13.12.25	Leioa - San Ignacio	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Derio - Leioa	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Leioa - Touring KE	0:3 ✺
16.11.25	Alavés C - Leioa	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Leioa - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.01.25	Leioa - Portugalete	2:3
08.09.24	Portugalete - Leioa	0:0
07.01.24	Portugalete - Leioa	0:3
14.01.23	Leioa - Portugalete	2:0
11.09.22	Portugalete - Leioa	0:1
19.01.22	Portugalete - Leioa	2:3
15.09.21	Leioa - Portugalete	1:1

Upcoming Matches