Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 6 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Q2 Stadium (Austin, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass


	Austin FC		New York City

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.4
	2.7	3.6	2.55	Watch
	2.79	3.6	2.56
	2.68	3.51	2.55	Watch
	2.62	3.5	2.45
	2.7	3.58	2.47	Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.4)	3.51 ↑ (3.38)	2.51 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austin FC
35.2%

Draw
27%

New York City
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

27.8%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	16.7%	62.5%

Austin FC - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Austin will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). NY City will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 43.1% – 81.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stuver B. (G) 17. Gallagher J. 4. Hines-Ike B. 15. Vaisanen L. 29. Guilherme Biro 8. Ring A. 5. Valencia J. 11. Obrian J. 10. Driussi S. (C) 33. Wolff O. 9. Zardes G.	49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 12. Tanasijevic S. 22. O'Toole K. 8. Perea A. 6. Sands J. 55. Parks K. 17. Wolf H. 16. Martinez A. 10. Rodriguez S.
Substitutes
20. Bersano M. (G) 18. Cascante J. 30. Cleveland S. (G) 26. Farkarlun B. 13. Finlay E. 19. Fodrey C. 2. Hedges M. 16. Jimenez H. 23. Kolmanic Z.	9. Bakrar M. 1. Barraza L. (G) 11. Fernandez J. 80. Haak J. 2. Hope-Gund R. 35. Ilenic M. 7. Mijatovic J. 26. Ojeda A. A. 43. Talles Magno
Coaches
Wolff J.	Cushing N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Perea A. ⚽, Gray T. (A), Wolf H. (A2)
12', Gray T. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
45+4', Gallagher J. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 1, Zardes G. ⚽, Obrian J. (A), Ring A. (A2)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', O'Toole K. ↓, Haak J. ↑,
68', Vaisanen L. ↓, Cascante J. ↑,
68', Valencia J. ↓, Jimenez H. ↑,
68', Obrian J. ↓, Finlay E. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Zardes G. ⚽, Wolff O. (A),
77', Martinez A. ↓, Bakrar M. ↑,
77', Wolf H. ↓, Ojeda A. A. ↑,
83', Parks K. ↓, Mijatovic J. ↑,
83', Guilherme Biro ↓, Fodrey C. ↑,
89', Ring A. ↓, Hedges M. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Austin is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches NY City is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

NY City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Austin have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in NY City: Hope-Gund R. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austin FC
MLS
29.06.24	Sporting Kansas City - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
22.06.24	Minnesota United - Austin FC	0:1 ✺
19.06.24	Austin FC - Los Angeles	1:1 ✺
15.06.24	Colorado Rapids - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
01.06.24	Real Salt Lake - Austin FC	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWTLL
- New York City FC
MLS
03.07.24	New York City - CF Montréal	2:0 ✺
28.06.24	New York City - Orlando City	4:2 ✺
22.06.24	Nashville SC - New York City	1:0 ✺
19.06.24	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York City	2:0 ✺
14.06.24	New York City - Columbus Crew	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLL

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