Match Info

MLS

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Geodis Park (Nashville, TN) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Da Silva A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Usa	20:30	MLS Season Pass
International	00:30	Apple TV International


	Nashville SC		New York City

	1	X	2
	1.71	4	4.33	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.4
	1.75	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.82	3.96	4.42
	1.76	3.84	4.44	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.4
	1.75	3.97	4.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.78)	3.87 ↑ (3.64)	4.47 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nashville SC
54.3%

Draw
24.5%

New York City
21.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.1%

26%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

28.8%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nashville SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nashville SC than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nashville SC - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: Nashville SC will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Schwake B. (G) 27. Baker-Whiting R. 4. Palacios J. 3. Woledzi M. 2. Lovitz D. 6. Acosta B. 16. Corcoran M. 37. Qasem A. 7. Espinoza C. 10. Mukhtar H. (C) 41. Madrigal W.	49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 34. Raul Gustavo 2. Cavallo N. 8. Perea A. 87. Farnos A. 5. Trewin K. 26. Ojeda A. 7. Mercau N. 88. Jones M.
Substitutes
22. Bauer J. 12. Brunet C. 23. Knight J. 5. Maher J. 14. Mohammed S. 19. Muyl A. 17. Pacius W. 9. Surridge S. 1. Willis J. (G)	45. Acito K. 29. Carrizo M. 71. Molinari P. 15. Pierre K. 99. Reid S. 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 19. Tanasijevic S. 17. Wolf H.
Coaches
Callaghan B.	Jansen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Palacios J. ⚽, Espinoza C. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Mercau N. (Penalty Awarded),
25', Trewin K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 1, Woledzi M. ⚽, Acosta B. (A),
65', Qasem A. 🟨,
66', Jones M. ↓, Wolf H. ↑,
66', Farnos A. ↓, Shore J. ↑,
72', Qasem A. ↓, Surridge S. ↑,
78', Perea A. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
79', Acosta B. ↓, Brunet C. ↑,
79', Madrigal W. ↓, Muyl A. ↑,
85', Cavallo N. ↓, Reid S. ↑,
85', Trewin K. ↓, Pierre K. ↑,
86', Espinoza C. 🟨,
89', Espinoza C. ↓, Bauer J. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nashville may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nashville is the team to beat.

There will not play in Nashville: Najar A. (Injury) Surridge S. (Back Injury) Tagseth E. (Injury) Yazbek P. (Injury)

There will not play in NY City: Baiera D. (Knee Injury) Martinez A. (Knee Injury) O'Neill A. (Ankle Injury) O'Toole K. (Leg Injury) Talles Magno (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nashville won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Outrights of MLS for now

Nashville SC: 15.27% New York City: 0.58%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nashville SC
MLS
17.05.26	Nashville SC - Los Angeles	3:2 ✺
13.05.26	New England Revolution - Nashville SC	0:3 ✺
09.05.26	Nashville SC - DC United	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
05.05.26	Tigres UANL - Nashville SC	1:0 ✺
MLS
02.05.26	Philadelphia Union - Nashville SC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWTLT
- New York City FC
US Open Cup
20.05.26	Columbus Crew - New York City	1:0 ✺
MLS
16.05.26	New York Red Bulls - New York City	1:1 ✺
13.05.26	Charlotte - New York City	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	New York City - Columbus Crew	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	New York City - DC United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
17.08.25	New York City - Nashville SC	2:1
31.05.25	Nashville SC - New York City	2:2
06.10.24	New York City - Nashville SC	3:1
22.06.24	Nashville SC - New York City	1:0
15.04.23	New York City - Nashville SC	2:1
25.02.23	Nashville SC - New York City	2:0
03.10.21	New York City - Nashville SC	0:0

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