Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Spurny J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Russia	TV Start
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
World	Onefootball


	Sturm Graz		Ried

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.85	Watch
	2.42	3.25	2.88
	2.48	3.41	2.96
	2.48	3.33	2.87	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.8
	2.43	3.26	2.86	Watch
	2.42	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (1.92)	3.27 ↓ (3.59)	2.87 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
38.6%

Draw
28.7%

Ried
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

26%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.

Ried has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ried's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	6.2%	37.5%

Sturm Graz - Ried Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Ried will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sturm Graz will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bignetti M. (G) 2. Mitchell J. 80. Fosso R. 22. Gazibegovic J. 30. Koller P. 17. Karic E. 11. Kayombo A. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 10. Kiteishvili O. 8. Rozga F. 77. Malone M.	1. Leitner A. (G) 5. Havenaar N. 23. Sollbauer M. 30. Steurer O. 12. Bajic A. 28. Bajlicz N. 6. Maart Y. 18. Rossdorfer F. 26. Mayer J. 29. van Wyk A. 7. Mutandwa K.
Substitutes
47. Aiwu E. 26. Beganovic B. 43. Hodl J. 20. Jatta S. 41. Lorenz E. (G) 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 5. Vallci A. 39. Weinhandl L.	47. Aisowieren E. E. 15. Boguo J. 13. Kiedl P. 19. Nasrawe J. 17. Pomer P. 8. Rasner M. 3. Scherzer J. 24. Wernitznig C. 77. Wimmer F. (G)
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Senft M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Bajlicz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Mutandwa K. ↓, Kiedl P. ↑,
59', van Wyk A. ↓, Aisowieren E. E. ↑,
63', Malone M. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
76', Fosso R. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
76', Kayombo A. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
80', Bajlicz N. ↓, Pomer P. ↑,
80', Bajic A. ↓, Boguo J. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Hodl J. ⚽, Kiteishvili O. (A),
88', Mayer J. ↓, Rasner M. ↑,
89', Rozga F. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 3.

Sturm has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ried may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sturm could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Lavalee D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ried: Mesic N. (Knee Injury) Stoger D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ried: Mutandwa K. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:15. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14
5	Ried	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian OFB Cup
01.02.26	Rheindorf Altach - Sturm Graz	3:1 ET ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Sturm Graz - Brann	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Feyenoord - Sturm Graz	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.01.26	Sturm Graz - Copenhagen	4:2 ✺
08.01.26	Club Brugge - Sturm Graz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWT
- SV Ried
Austrian OFB Cup
31.01.26	Ried - Rapid Wien	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.26	Ried - Austria Salzburg	4:1 ✺
23.01.26	Ried - Dynamo České Budějovice	2:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
13.12.25	Ried - Rheindorf Altach	3:0 ✺
06.12.25	Rapid Wien - Ried	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
16.08.25	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3
Austrian OFB Cup
28.08.24	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3
Austrian Bundesliga
30.10.22	Sturm Graz - Ried	2:1
06.08.22	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:1
06.03.22	Ried - Sturm Graz	2:2
Austrian OFB Cup
27.10.21	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:2
Austrian Bundesliga
17.10.21	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:0

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