Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 27

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Souza Silva E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Avaí		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3.2	5
	1.75	3.3	5
	1.78	3.3	5.62
	1.76	3.16	5.57	Watch
	1.73	3.3	5
	1.76	3.34	5.09	Watch
	1.75	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.65)	3.27 ↓ (3.44)	5.22 ↓ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
53.4%

Draw
28.6%

Ituano
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

27%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

26.8%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Avaí - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Ituano will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 3. Tiago Pagnussat 14. Vilar 6. Willian Maranhao 72. Rodrigo Santos 21. Pedro Castro 8. Giovanni 27. Pedrinho 9. Vagner Love (C) 7. Hygor	1. Saulo (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 3. Claudinho (C) 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Miqueias 10. Jose Aldo 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Thonny Anderson 7. Vinicius Paiva
Substitutes
99. Ademilson 5. Alan 78. Andrey 80. Gabriel Barros 82. Gustavo Talles 19. Joao Paulo 95. Jonathan Costa 11. Mauricio Garcez 25. Natanael 66. Otavio Passos (G) 28. Ronaldo Henrique 90. Willian Pottker	19. Alvaro 20. Eduardo Person 23. Gabriel Falcao 16. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Duarte 22. Leozinho 15. Luiz Gustavo 21. Neto Berola 17. Pablo 14. Pedro Libardoni 12. Wesley Borges (G) 18. Yann Rolim
Coaches
Moreira E.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', Guilherme Mariano 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Marcos Vinicius ⚽,
28', Pedrinho 🟨,
35', Willian Maranhao 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Giovanni ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigo ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
61', Pedrinho ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
62', Bruno Xavier ↓, Leozinho ↑,
72', Miqueias ↓, Alvaro ↑,
79', Giovanni ↓, Andrey ↑,
79', Rodrigo Santos ↓, Ronaldo Henrique ↑,
79', Hygor ↓, Willian Pottker ↑,
85', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Neto Berola ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 and 16).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Avaí is a favorite.

There will not play in Avaí: Igor Bohn (Injury)

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Salatiel (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

There are questionable in Avaí: Roberto Rosa (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Avaí won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.24	Goiás - Avaí	2:1 ✺
07.09.24	Avaí - Sport Recife	0:2 ✺
31.08.24	CRB Maceio - Avaí	1:2 ✺
27.08.24	Coritiba - Avaí	1:0 ✺
22.08.24	Avaí - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWLW
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:4 ✺
07.09.24	Ituano - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
02.09.24	Sport Recife - Ituano	3:2 ✺
24.08.24	Ituano - Goiás	1:0 ✺
20.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.06.24	Ituano - Avaí	0:1
25.11.23	Avaí - Ituano	0:0
22.07.23	Ituano - Avaí	0:1

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