Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 25

Date: 7 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: de Almeida Andrade E. R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ituano		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.38	Watch
	2.95	3	2.35
	3	3.1	2.4
	3.2	3.12	2.47
	3.14	3.02	2.41	Watch
	3	3.1	2.38
	3.11	3.1	2.38	Watch
	3	3.1	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.32)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)	2.4 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
30.6%

Draw
30.4%

Mirassol
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

29%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

28.2%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mirassol could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Ituano - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Mirassol will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Luiz Gustavo 3. Claudinho (C) 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Miqueias 10. Yann Rolim 7. Joao Carlos 9. Thonny Anderson 11. Bruno Xavier	23. Alex Muralha (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 3. Lucas Gazal 34. Joao Victor 4. Luiz Otavio 37. Zeca 32. Rodrigo Andrade 8. Danielzinho (C) 10. Chico Kim 49. Dellatorre 99. Leo Gamalho
Substitutes
16. Aluisio 19. Alvaro 18. de Almeida J. V. X. 20. Eduardo Person 14. Erik 23. Gabriel Falcao 13. Leo Duarte 22. Leozinho 15. Nathan 21. Neto Berola 17. Pablo 1. Saulo (G)	22. Alex Silva 16. Bruno Matias 29. Cristian Renato 7. Fernandinho 14. Isaque 77. Iury Castilho 98. Marquinhos 25. Neto Moura 1. Vanderlei (G)
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Thonny Anderson ⚽, Miqueias (A),
19', 1 - 1, Leo Gamalho ⚽,
45+1', Leo Gamalho 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lucas Gazal ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
46', Rodrigo ↓, de Almeida J. V. X. ↑,
47', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
52', de Almeida J. V. X. 🟨,
58', Yann Rolim ↓, Eduardo Person ↑,
58', Joao Carlos ↓, Leozinho ↑,
59', Rodrigo Andrade ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
59', Leo Gamalho ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
65', Zeca ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
65', Chico Kim ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Bruno Xavier ⚽, Eduardo Person (A),
73', 2 - 2, Fernandinho ⚽, Dellatorre (A),
74', 3 - 2, Leozinho ⚽, Eduardo Person (A),
75', Leozinho 🟨,
81', Thonny Anderson ↓, Alvaro ↑,
82', Bruno Xavier ↓, Leo Duarte ↑,
84', Joao Victor 🟨,
86', Dellatorre 🟨,
90+2', Miqueias 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 1.

Recent matches Ituano is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mirassol is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mirassol will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Eduardo Person (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Salatiel (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ituano won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
02.09.24	Sport Recife - Ituano	3:2 ✺
24.08.24	Ituano - Goiás	1:0 ✺
20.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	1:0 ✺
15.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ituano	1:2 ✺
10.08.24	Ituano - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 LWLWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie B
03.09.24	Mirassol - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
26.08.24	Paysandu - Mirassol	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
17.08.24	Ceará - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
09.08.24	Mirassol - Brusque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.05.24	Mirassol - Ituano	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
14.02.24	Ituano - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
28.10.23	Ituano - Mirassol	0:0
03.07.23	Mirassol - Ituano	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.23	Mirassol - Ituano	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
28.08.21	Ituano - Mirassol	2:1
26.06.21	Mirassol - Ituano	1:2

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