Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 22

Date: 20 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Miranda L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	7	Watch
	1.51	3.7	6.25
	1.53	3.75	6.5
	1.52	3.89	7.55
	1.55	3.7	6.64	Watch
	1.5	3.75	7
	1.53	3.85	6.61	Watch
	1.53	3.75	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.62)	3.77 ↑ (3.59)	6.76 ↑ (5.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
61.3%

Draw
24.8%

Ituano
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

26%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

24.8%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 31. Igor Formiga 25. Luisao 3. Rafael Donato (C) 4. Patrick 19. Leo Tocantins 30. Waguininho 21. Eduardo 28. Marlon 9. Neto Pessoa 7. Rodolfo	12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 3. Luiz Gustavo 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 8. Miqueias 5. Rodrigo (C) 11. Bruno Xavier 10. Jose Aldo 7. Vinicius Paiva 9. Thonny Anderson
Substitutes
1. Airton (G) 14. Danilo Barcelos 5. Geovane 99. Lucas Cardoso 12. Lucas Pereira (G) 11. Lucca 17. Oscar Ruiz 22. Raul Prata 33. Renato 16. Reverson 2. Rodrigo Soares 15. Rodrigues E.	18. de Almeida J. V. X. 14. Erik 22. Gabriel Falcao 20. Jean Pyerre 19. Jhow 13. Leo Oliveira 21. Leozinho 17. Neto Berola 15. Pedro Libardoni 16. Richard 1. Saulo (G) 30. Wesley Borges (G)
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Jose Aldo 🟨,
33', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
45+3', Waguininho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leo Tocantins ↓, Rodrigues E. ↑,
49', Rodrigues E. 🟨,
62', Neto Pessoa ↓, Lucca ↑,
66', Jose Aldo ↓, de Almeida J. V. X. ↑,
67', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
70', Lucca 🟨,
74', Marlon ↓, Oscar Ruiz ↑,
74', Igor Formiga ↓, Rodrigo Soares ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Lucca ⚽, Waguininho (A),
82', Rodrigo ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
86', Rodolfo ↓, Geovane ↑,
86', Miqueias ↓, Jhow ↑,
87', Bruno Xavier ↓, Leozinho ↑,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 4.

Novorizontino is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Ituano is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Novorizontino is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Cesar Martins (Injury) Raul Prata (Injury) Vitinho (Injury)

There will not play in Ituano: Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Pablo (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Novorizontino to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Novorizontino won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
16.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
04.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Goiás	2:1 ✺
29.07.24	Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
23.07.24	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 TWWWT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
15.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ituano	1:2 ✺
10.08.24	Ituano - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
03.08.24	Amazonas - Ituano	1:0 ✺
26.07.24	Ituano - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
23.07.24	Ituano - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.05.24	Ituano - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:0
20.05.23	Ituano - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2
19.08.22	Ituano - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
07.05.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.01.22	Ituano - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0

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