Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)


	Avaí		Camboriú

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.81	3.43	4.13
	1.74	3.38	5.04	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.4
	1.83	3.16	4.58
	1.81	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.56)	3.28 ↓ (3.6)	4.43 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
51.3%

Draw
28%

Camboriú
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

25%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

23.4%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Camboriú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camboriú than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Avaí - Camboriú Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Otavio Passos (G) 55. Bruno Baldini 36. DG 20. Gaspar 15. Guilherme Aquino 10. Jean Lucas 27. Pedro Cuiaba 43. Thayllon 57. Walace 2. Wallison 77. Ze Ricardo (C)	1. Vava (C) 18. Alysson Dutra 5. Choco 23. Danilo Mendes 13. Junior Santos 10. Mansur 15. Matheus Belem 11. Nilton 16. Reginaldo 26. Silva 7. Wermeson
Substitutes
9. Avenatti F. 6. Cabral N. 14. Daniel Penha 4. Gabriel Simples 18. Hyan 46. Joao Bezerra 50. Joao Maistro 72. Kaua Dias 90. Kevin 41. Leo Aragao (G) 8. Luiz Henrique 19. Vinicius Gugel	3. Daniel Blanco 2. Gabriel Bessan 14. Hygor 9. Kaka 17. Kennedy 12. Lucas Gomes (G) 20. Macias J. 19. Mikael Mendes 8. Nadson 21. Ricardinho 27. Silva M. 4. Tom

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Nilton 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Alysson Dutra 🟨,
61', Junior Santos ↓, Gabriel Bessan ↑,
62', Thayllon ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
62', Gaspar ↓, Daniel Penha ↑,
67', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
73', Matheus Belem ↓, Silva M. ↑,
73', Choco ↓, Kaka ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Kaka ⚽,
77', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Kevin ↑,
83', Walace ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
86', Mansur ↓, Hygor ↑,
86', Nilton ↓, Nadson ↑,
90+3', DG 🟨,
90+4', Gabriel Bessan 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Daniel Penha (Penalty Awarded),
1, Wermeson (Penalty Awarded),
2, DG (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kaka (Penalty Awarded),
3, Jean Lucas (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nadson (Penalty Awarded),
4, Luiz Henrique (Penalty Awarded),
4, Reginaldo (Penalty Awarded),
5, Avenatti F. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

Avaí is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Camboriú has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Avaí is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Figueirense - Avaí	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Avaí - Carlos Renaux	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWW
- Camboriú FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Figueirense - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Camboriú - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Camboriú - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:2
18.01.23	Avaí - Camboriú	3:0
16.02.22	Camboriú - Avaí	1:0
17.03.16	Avaí - Camboriú	0:1
07.02.16	Camboriú - Avaí	1:1

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