Match Info

Catarinense - 5th-8th places - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck (Rio do Sul)


	Santa Catarina		Avaí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3	2.4
	2.67	3.04	2.73	Watch
	3	2.9	2.25
	3.08	3.18	2.26
	3.8	3.1	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.87)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.32 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Catarina
29.7%

Draw
30.4%

Avaí
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

30.2%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

30.3%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Santa Catarina - Avaí Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santa Catarina (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Santa Catarina (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Catarina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcos (G) 29. Adriel 7. Bruninho 5. Bruno Negueba 8. Cleberson 2. Juninho 15. Kaue Oliveira 30. Luan 10. Mendes 14. Piaui 13. Renan	41. Leo Aragao (G) 3. Allyson 9. Avenatti F. 55. Bruno Baldini 14. Daniel Penha 36. DG 4. Gabriel Simples 10. Jean Lucas 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 77. Ze Ricardo (C)
Substitutes
21. Beto 18. Brener 3. DVD 27. Gui Nascimento 17. Henrique Lordelo 12. Iago Henrique 19. Pablo 31. Renan Nunes 22. Roberto Teixeira (G) 23. Vinicius Machado (G) 9. Yhago	6. Cabral N. 20. Gaspar 15. Guilherme Aquino 18. Hyan 50. Joao Maistro 71. Joaquim (G) 90. Kevin 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 57. Walace 2. Wallison

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Cleberson 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Daniel Penha ⚽,
12', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Luiz Henrique ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
56', Allyson 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Luan ⚽,
61', 1 - 2, Thayllon ⚽,
65', Bruno Negueba ↓, Renan Nunes ↑,
66', Cleberson ↓, Henrique Lordelo ↑,
68', Daniel Penha 🟨,
70', Henrique Lordelo 🟨,
74', Thayllon ↓, Gaspar ↑,
74', Avenatti F. ↓, Walace ↑,
74', Mendes ↓, Brener ↑,
74', Bruninho ↓, Gui Nascimento ↑,
81', Piaui ↓, Beto ↑,
85', Daniel Penha ↓, Wallison ↑,
85', Jean Lucas ↓, Hyan ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santa Catarina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Catarina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Catarina FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.02.26	Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LTWTW
- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Avaí - Camboriú	0:2 penalties ✺
31.01.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Figueirense - Avaí	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1
08.03.25	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2 penalties
15.01.25	Avaí - Santa Catarina	1:0

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