Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 27

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Avaí		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.4	4.75
	1.65	3.5	5.15
	1.67	3.77	5.58
	3.15	3.17	2.29	Watch
	1.68	3.62	5.3
	1.71	3.45	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.62)	3.52 ↓ (3.6)	4.76 ↓ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
51.8%

Draw
27.7%

Ferroviária
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

25.7%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

23.6%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Avaí - Ferroviária Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 77. Ze Ricardo 34. Wanderson 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 36. DG 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 8. Joao Vitor 98. JP 99. Cleber 94. Emerson Negueba	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 31. Ze Mario 5. Ricardinho 10. Fabricio Daniel 8. Alencar 35. Netinho 77. Juninho 92. Carlao
Substitutes
3. Anderson Jesus 30. Guilherme Santos 7. Hygor 1. Igor Bohn (G) 16. Jamerson 9. Juninho 32. Leo Reis 58. Lucas Eduardo 33. Mario Sergio 2. Railan 41. Thayllon 4. Weverton	66. Edson Lucas 95. Filipe Costa (G) 27. Hernani 25. Ian Luccas 7. Kevin 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 37. Thiago Lopes 11. Vitor Barreto 17. Ze Hugo
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Daniel Azambuja

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Netinho ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Cleber ⚽, Emerson Negueba (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ze Ricardo ↓, Thayllon ↑,
49', 1 - 2, Fabricio Daniel ⚽,
71', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
72', Juninho ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
76', Joao Vitor 🟨,
78', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Tarik ↑,
80', Joao Vitor ↓, Guilherme Santos ↑,
80', JP ↓, Hygor ↑,
87', Netinho ↓, Maycon ↑,
87', Ricardinho ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
88', Emerson Negueba ↓, Juninho ↑,
88', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Leo Reis ↑,
89', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Eduardo Brock ⚽, Guilherme Santos (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Avaí is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Avaí: Andrey (Injury) Jonathan Costa (Red Card) Marcos Vinicius (Yellow Cards) Romildo Del Piage (Injury)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Albano (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive)

There are questionable in Avaí: Cleber (Injury) Eduardo Brock (Injury) Quaresma (Injury)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Netinho (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
16.09.25	Atlético Goianiense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
14.09.25	Avaí - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Figueirense - Avaí	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.25	Avaí - Goiás	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	América Mineiro - Avaí	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWL
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Coritiba - Ferroviária	4:0 ✺
01.09.25	Ferroviária - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Ferroviária - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Goianiense - Ferroviária	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.05.25	Ferroviária - Avaí	1:1
Copa do Brasil
13.02.20	Ferroviária - Avaí	2:0

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