Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck (Rio do Sul)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)


	Santa Catarina		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.17	2.77	3.92
	2.13	2.98	3.77	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.5
	2.11	2.72	3.88
	2.1	2.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.35)	2.81 ↓ (2.88)	3.76 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Catarina
43%

Draw
32.6%

Barra Santa Catarina
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

31.2%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.9%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barra Santa Catarina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barra Santa Catarina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcos (G) 29. Adriel 20. Alex Goncalves 7. Bruninho 8. Cleberson 6. Coruja 16. Galdino 2. Juninho 10. Mendes 13. Renan 4. Ze Leandro	1. Ewerton (G) 6. Da Rocha 10. Elvinho 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 7. Gabriel Silva 11. Geovany Soares 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jean Pierre 9. Renan Bernabe 5. Tete
Substitutes
21. Beto 18. Brener 5. Bruno Negueba 27. Gui Nascimento 17. Henrique Lordelo 15. Kaue Oliveira 30. Luan 19. Pablo 14. Piaui 31. Renan Nunes 23. Vinicius Machado (G) 9. Yhago	17. Cleo Silva 12. Fabian Volpi (G) 24. Lucas Vargas 20. Marcelinho 21. Nicolas 15. Pablo 16. Pericles 19. Saymon 14. Vava 13. Vitao 18. Warley
Coaches
Betinho	Eduardo Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Galdino ↓, Bruno Negueba ↑,
34', Adriel 🟨,
37', Gabriel Silva 🟨,
45+1', Elvinho (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', Renan Bernabe 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Alex Goncalves ↓, Gui Nascimento ↑,
66', Coruja ↓, Piaui ↑,
66', Mendes ↓, Renan Nunes ↑,
67', Everton Alemao 🟨,
68', Elvinho ↓, Warley ↑,
68', Tete ↓, Pablo ↑,
72', Henrique Freitas 🟨,
80', Gabriel Silva ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
80', Renan Bernabe ↓, Nicolas ↑,
86', Henrique Freitas ↓, Pericles ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Warley ⚽,
90', Marcos 🟨,
90+2', Geovany Soares 🟨,
90+15', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

Santa Catarina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barra's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Santa Catarina is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santa Catarina won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Catarina FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 TWTWW
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Concórdia	5:1 ✺
22.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Brusque	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	Camboriú - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1
23.01.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	2:2

Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide