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Current Win Probability
Ayacucho 40.6%
Draw 30.1%
Comerciantes Belén 29.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
29.6%
27.7%
42.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.1%
26.3%
45.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayacucho's performance.
Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Comerciantes Belén might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-12.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ayacucho that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+15.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Comerciantes Belén could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ayacucho - Comerciantes Belén Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Acosta M. (C) 25. Albornoz C. H. 11. Barboza S. 20. Fanarraga A. 18. Huyhua C. 7. Infante M. 29. Lojas S. 33. Salcedo R. 19. Tamariz A. 17. Tuesta J. 22. Velasquez J.
1. Silva L. (G) 28. Acosta A. 6. Arevalo F. 15. Guerrero Fonseca R. M. 10. Lemos M. 29. Perlaza V. 5. Pinedo D. 19. Ramua A. 3. Rios R. 33. Valdeblanquez J. (C) 11. Villanueva C.
Substitutes
2. Aquino H. 16. Ataupilco G. 6. Banega F. 4. Gavilan Y. 15. Gonzales E. 27. Gonzales J. 9. Melendez Q. 10. Mezarina F. 23. Orejuela S. (G)
7. Bazan J. 8. Flores L. 25. Gonzales Cainamari F. J. 26. Guevara R. 23. Ramirez B. (G) 27. Reategui P. 24. Rojas Ihuaraqui P. N. 17. Vela P. 9. Zambrano J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Lojas S. 🟨,
43', Arevalo F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Tamariz A. 🟨,
63', Huyhua C. 🟨,
67', Salcedo R. ↓, Melendez Q. ↑,
67', Barboza S. ↓, Gonzales J. ↑,
68', Guerrero Fonseca R. M. ↓, Rojas Ihuaraqui P. N. ↑,
68', Villanueva C. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
77', Huyhua C. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
77', Infante M. ↓, Mezarina F. ↑,
90+1', Ramua A. ↓, Vela P. ↑,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 2.
Recent performances by Ayacucho have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Comerciantes is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Ayacucho may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Ayacucho won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).
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Acosta M. (C) 
Barboza S. 
Lemos M. 
Perlaza V. 
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