Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.37
	1.98	3.55	3.6	Watch
	2.04	3.43	3.54
	2	3.48	3.6	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.5
	2.88	3.58	2.41	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.85)	3.45 ↓ (3.65)	3.13 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
42.3%

Draw
27.5%

Sporting Cristal
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

25.6%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

24.8%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayacucho's performance.

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Cristal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ayacucho that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Cristal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ayacucho will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ayacucho: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ayacucho will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 2. Navarro G. 25. Ataupillco J. 5. Tamariz A. 19. Uribe C. 18. Orue D. 80. Medina F. 7. Ferreira M. 77. Lucumi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.	13. Duarte A. (G) 15. Lora J. 32. Diaz L. 3. Alcedo F. 28. Pasquini N. 39. Caparo H. 22. Sosa M. 26. Wisdom I. 40. Moretti J. 11. Avila I. 30. Alarcon J.
Substitutes
27. Barrios K. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 35. Ferreyra K. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 15. Ratto P. 10. Rios M. 16. Vilchez J. 17. Villamarin J. 4. Yovera A.	33. Bautista C. (G) 18. Cabellos A. 23. Castro M. 37. Lora F. 43. Mendoza Cornejo F. G. 29. Posito Olazabal A. J. 12. Solis R. (G)
Coaches
Islas L.	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
6', 0 - 1, Avila I. ⚽, Moretti J. (A),
11', Valencia J. 🟥,
14', Ferreira M. ↓, Izaguirre P. ↑,
21', 1 - 1, Uribe C. ⚽, Perez Azambuya E. M. (A),
28', 1 - 2, Sosa M. ⚽, Alarcon J. (A),
34', 1 - 3, Avila I. ⚽, Wisdom I. (A),
38', 1 - 4, Wisdom I. ⚽, Avila I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Uribe C. ↓, Correa Flores C. A. ↑,
46', Falconi J. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
50', Pasquini N. 🟨,
56', Sosa M. ↓, Castro M. ↑,
58', Diaz L. 🟨,
64', Moretti J. ↓, Lora F. ↑,
65', Tamariz A. 🟨,
66', Medina F. ↓, Villamarin J. ↑,
69', Ataupillco J. 🟨,
72', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Rios M. ↑,
79', Avila I. ↓, Mendoza Cornejo F. G. ↑,
79', Diaz L. ↓, Posito Olazabal A. J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 0.

Ayacucho is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sporting Cristal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting Cristal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ayacucho: Ganoza M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Cazonatti G. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez S. (Injury) Iberico L. (Injury) Yotun Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Bilbao J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting Cristal: Pretell J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 21:45. (average 1.1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayacucho won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.8:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.25	Juan Pablo II College - Ayacucho	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
19.04.25	Cusco - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
11.04.25	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	0:1 ✺
04.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Ayacucho	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLLLT
- Sporting Cristal
Copa Libertadores
07.05.25	Sporting Cristal - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
28.04.25	Sporting Cristal - Juan Pablo II College	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Alianza Atlético - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
05.10.22	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	0:1
13.05.22	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	3:2
17.10.21	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	1:0
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
25.06.21	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	0:2
Peruvian Liga 1
12.12.20	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	1:4
09.12.20	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	2:1
05.12.20	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	1:1

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