Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play, Nativa
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Alianza Atlético

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.3
	2.08	3.1	3.85	Watch
	2.15	3	3.85
	2	3.1	4.12	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.6
	2.09	3.25	3.93	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.28)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	3.79 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
45.2%

Draw
30.1%

Alianza Atlético
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.2%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 27. Barrios K. 2. Navarro G. 3. Ganoza M. 5. Tamariz A. 18. Orue D. (C) 7. Ferreira M. 8. Ramirez D. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 17. Villamarin J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.	95. Prieto D. (G) 3. Vasquez C. 4. Villegas J. C. 8. Illanes F. 13. Benincasa H. (C) 21. Perleche E. 16. Fernandez S. 7. Castro R. 15. Lupu H. 19. Perez M. 29. Graneros A.
Substitutes
25. Ataupillco J. 12. Caro D. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 77. Lucumi J. 80. Medina F. 15. Ratto P. 11. Ruidiaz Y. 6. Tuesta J. 4. Yovera A.	12. Amasifuen S. (G) 2. Cossio A. 17. del Castillo J. 27. Diaz R. 30. Guzman P. 5. Javier Navea 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 23. Olmedo L. 22. Ysique F.
Coaches
Ospina E.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Ramirez D. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
21', Orue D. 🟨,
28', Ferreira M. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Graneros A. (Pen),
36', Fernandez S. 🟨,
45', Navarro G. 🟥,
45+5', Perleche E. 🟨,
45+6', Castro R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Castro R. ↓, Olmedo L. ↑,
46', Ferreira M. ↓, Ataupillco J. ↑,
48', Ganoza M. 🟨,
53', Fernandez S. ↓, Guzman P. ↑,
53', Perez M. ↓, Larios Saavedra G. A. ↑,
57', Barrios K. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,
58', Villamarin J. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
59', 0 - 2, Perleche E. ⚽, Graneros A. (A),
71', Perleche E. ↓, Cossio A. ↑,
71', Orue D. ↓, Ruidiaz Y. ↑,
79', Graneros A. ↓, del Castillo J. ↑,
79', Prieto D. 🟨,
84', Lupu H. 🟨,
90+2', Larios Saavedra G. A. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayacucho won 3.

Ayacucho has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Alianza Atlético is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alianza Atlético could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ayacucho will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alianza Atlético: Espinosa R. (Muscle Injury) Vilchez Y. (Knee Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Ayacucho won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22:15 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ayacucho won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:6 (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Cusco - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
11.04.25	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	0:1 ✺
04.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Ayacucho	1:1 ✺
27.03.25	Ayacucho - FBC Melgar	2:3 ✺
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLTLL
- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Alianza Atlético - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Alianza Atlético - Cusco	2:4 ✺
08.03.25	Cajamarca - Alianza Atlético	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Alianza Atlético - Escuela Municipal Binacional	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
19.09.22	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	2:0
01.05.22	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	2:1
21.09.21	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:1
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
16.06.21	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	1:0 penalties
Peruvian Liga 1
15.04.21	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	0:1
19.11.17	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	0:2
26.07.17	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	1:0

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