Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)


	Ayr United		Peterhead

	1	X	2
	1.4	4	6.5
	1.4	4.52	6.46
	1.54	4.21	5.01	Watch
	1.44	4	5.75
	1.47	4.1	5.7
	1.4	4.33	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.58)	4.19 ↑ (3.72)	5.96 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
63.1%

Draw
21.7%

Peterhead
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

24.3%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

23.2%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayr United's performance.

Peterhead has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peterhead than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ayr United - Peterhead Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayr (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ayr (1.58) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayr (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Dowds A. ⚽, Thomas D. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Pawlett P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 1, McAllister N. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 5.

Ayr is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peterhead has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Ayr is a strong favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
06.12.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	0:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Ayr United - Turriff United	3:0 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
22.11.25	Airdrieonians - Ayr United	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Ross County - Ayr United	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWWTT
- Peterhead
Scottish League One
06.12.25	Alloa Athletic - Peterhead	4:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Peterhead - Greenock Morton	2:3 penalties ✺
Scottish League One
22.11.25	Peterhead - Stenhousemuir	1:4 ✺
15.11.25	Peterhead - Montrose	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.11.25	Stirling Albion - Peterhead	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Challenge Cup
12.10.24	Ayr United - Peterhead	2:1
Scottish Cup
25.11.23	Peterhead - Ayr United	1:2 ET
Scottish Football Championship
07.05.16	Ayr United - Peterhead	2:1
03.05.16	Peterhead - Ayr United	1:4
Scottish League One
23.04.16	Peterhead - Ayr United	0:4
06.02.16	Ayr United - Peterhead	1:2
19.12.15	Peterhead - Ayr United	3:0

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