Match Info

J3 League - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ashitaka Park Stadium (Numazu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Azul Claro Numazu		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	1.95
	3.2	3.45	1.95
	3.56	3.9	1.9
	3.29	3.53	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2
	3.76	3.55	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.76)	3.46 ↑ (2.96)	1.96 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azul Claro Numazu
26.8%

Draw
26.5%

Tochigi City
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

30.8%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

30.3%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azul Claro Numazu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Azul Claro Numazu's form might have worsened.

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tochigi City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Azul Claro Numazu than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Azul Claro Numazu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi City Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tochigi City will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Gueguim G. (G) 2. Miyawaki S. 34. Miyazaki K. 5. Shinozaki T. 16. Mihara S. 8. Suzuki K. 77. Martinez E. 14. Tokunaga K. 11. Mori Y. 20. Kawamata K. 23. Shirawachi K.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 28. Konishi K. 42. Jonjic M. 15. Sato Y. 5. Okui R. 10. Okaniwa Y. 16. Kato J. 14. Sekino G. 39. Vasquez B. 99. Hiraoka M. 77. Tanaka P. J.
Substitutes
28. Inoue K. 3. Lucas Sena 35. Mukai H. 19. Saito M. 10. Sato N. 18. Sugai T. 9. Suzuki W. I. 1. Watanabe K. (G) 24. Yanagimachi K.	17. Fujiwara T. 1. Harada Y. (G) 8. Mori T. 13. Oshima T. 22. Suzuki H. 40. Suzuki K. 20. Tosa R. 90. Utaka P. 26. Utsugi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', Tokunaga K. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Jonjic M. ⚽,
19', Okui R. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Kawamata K. (Pen),
38', 1 - 2, Vasquez B. (Pen),
40', Mihara S. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 2, Shirawachi K. ⚽, Mihara S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
51', 2 - 3, Hiraoka M. ⚽, Vasquez B. (A),
64', Kawamata K. ↓, Suzuki W. I. ↑,
64', Martinez E. ↓, Yanagimachi K. ↑,
68', 3 - 3, Suzuki W. I. ⚽,
69', Tokunaga K. 🟨,
71', 4 - 3, Shinozaki T. ⚽,
72', Sekino G. ↓, Utsugi S. ↑,
72', Hiraoka M. ↓, Fujiwara T. ↑,
75', Mori Y. ↓, Sato N. ↑,
75', Shirawachi K. ↓, Mukai H. ↑,
79', Okui R. ↓, Suzuki H. ↑,
79', Kato J. ↓, Utaka P. ↑,
86', Okaniwa Y. ↓, Oshima T. ↑,
87', Mihara S. ↓, Inoue K. ↑,
88', Suzuki K. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 4, Utsugi S. ⚽, Konishi K. (A),
90+7', 4 - 5, Utaka P. ⚽, Tanaka P. J. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Azul Claro Numazu is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Tochigi City has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tochigi City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Azul Claro Numazu won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Azul Claro Numazu - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 33%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azul Claro Numazu
Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Azul Claro Numazu	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Tochigi - Azul Claro Numazu	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
19.07.25	Gainare Tottori - Azul Claro Numazu	4:3 ✺
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLT
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Tochigi City - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Fukushima United - Tochigi City	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Tochigi City - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Tochigi City - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Tochigi City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
01.03.25	Tochigi City - Azul Claro Numazu	0:0

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