Match Info

J3 League - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Kanseki Stadium Tochigi (Utsunomiya)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi		Azul Claro Numazu

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.6
	1.92	3.15	3.6	Watch
	2	3.23	3.67
	1.36	4.95	7.31	Watch
	1.95	3	3.7
	1.97	3.18	3.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.89)	3.44 ↑ (3.29)	4.25 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi
50.7%

Draw
27.3%

Azul Claro Numazu
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Azul Claro Numazu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tochigi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Azul Claro Numazu than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Tochigi - Azul Claro Numazu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Azul Claro Numazu (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi (votes: 1 - 50%). Azul Claro Numazu (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawata S. (G) 3. Omori H. 88. Uchida K. 37. Kimura Y. 8. Fukumori K. 77. Fujiwara K. 4. Sato S. 18. Kawana R. 81. Nakano K. 11. Aoshima T. 32. Ota R.	1. Watanabe K. (G) 16. Mihara S. 15. Nakamura Y. 5. Shinozaki T. 2. Miyawaki S. 24. Yanagimachi K. 14. Tokunaga K. 8. Suzuki K. 11. Mori Y. 23. Shirawachi K. 9. Suzuki W. I.
Substitutes
14. Diamanka C. 25. Iwasaki H. 5. Mori R. 80. Otabor K. 22. Takahashi H. 40. Takashima S. 27. Tanno K. (G) 29. Yano K. 47. Yoshino H.	17. Fujii K. 30. Gueguim G. (G) 28. Inoue K. 20. Kawamata K. 3. Lucas Sena 77. Martinez E. 35. Mukai H. 10. Sato N. 71. Watanabe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Ota R. (Pen),
4', 1 - 0, Ota R. ⚽,
29', Omori H. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Miyawaki S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kimura Y. ↓, Iwasaki H. ↑,
51', Suzuki W. I. 🟨,
55', Sato S. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Yanagimachi K. ⚽, Shirawachi K. (A),
60', 2 - 2, Fukumori K. ⚽, Nakano K. (A),
61', Sato S. ↓, Otabor K. ↑,
67', Mori Y. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
68', Nakamura Y. 🟨,
75', 3 - 2, Otabor K. ⚽, Fukumori K. (A),
76', Suzuki W. I. ↓, Kawamata K. ↑,
76', Tokunaga K. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
76', Shirawachi K. ↓, Mukai H. ↑,
86', Fukumori K. ↓, Takahashi H. ↑,
90+2', Ota R. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
90+2', Kawana R. ↓, Mori R. ↑,
90+3', Suzuki K. 🟨,
90+4', Nakano K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Tochigi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Azul Claro Numazu is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tochigi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tochigi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi SC
Japan J3 League
26.07.25	Tochigi City - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Tochigi - Sagamihara	1:2 ✺
12.07.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi	4:1 ✺
05.07.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLLLW
- Azul Claro Numazu
Japan J3 League
26.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
19.07.25	Gainare Tottori - Azul Claro Numazu	4:3 ✺
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kochi United	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Sagamihara - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
09.03.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi	0:0

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