Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit)

Referee: Sakhi D. (Kaz)


	BATE Borisov		AF Elbasani

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.40	2.05	Watch
	3.40	3.20	2.05
	3.50	3.30	2.02	Watch
	3.45	3.25	2.06
	4.73	1.94	2.91	Watch
	3.35	3.20	2.01
	3.63	3.28	2.03	Watch
	3.15	3.30	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (2.93)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	2.16 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BATE Borisov
26.4%

Draw
30.2%

AF Elbasani
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

28.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

27%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BATE Borisov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

AF Elbasani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BATE Borisov than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AF Elbasani than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	35%	50%

BATE Borisov - AF Elbasani Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. BATE will win (votes: 3 - 15%). AF Elbasani will win (votes: 10 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AF Elbasani: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AF Elbasani (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sokol D. (G) 52. Kress E. 5. Sakuta M. 33. Rakhmanov A. (C) 23. Bochko N. 25. Neskoromnyi N. 7. Angban V. 28. Mikhnyuk I. 26. Varaksa V. 37. Puerto E. 55. Kaplenko K.	24. Aleksovski I. (G) 77. Lila B. 15. Epitaux Y. 4. Lulaj B. (C) 11. Kasa K. 17. Ibrahim A. 14. Barjamaj M. 25. Tresa L. 79. Diallo I. 9. Hebaj R. 10. Nikaj A.
Substitutes
8. Apanasevich K. 88. Dubovskiy P. 13. Khramtsevich Y. 17. Kolosovskiy P. 10. Rusakov E. 47. Sakhonchik A. 35. Skopets A. (G) 24. Yatskevich V. 42. Zhurin A.	41. Borici A. 70. Boye I. 6. Dine D. 8. Ibraimi D. 20. Karrica B. 18. Kasa A. 22. Lleshi A. 23. Lukoki Mateso E. 28. Niang O. 1. Totoshi K. (G) 29. Zykollari J.
Coaches
Rogozhkin V.	Gvozdenovic I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Epitaux Y. 🟨,
17', Neskoromnyi N. 🟨,
42', Varaksa V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaplenko K. ↓, Sakhonchik A. ↑,
59', Bochko N. ↓, Rusakov E. ↑,
59', Puerto E. ↓, Yatskevich V. ↑,
73', Yatskevich V. 🟨,
76', Nikaj A. ↓, Lukoki Mateso E. ↑,
76', Hebaj R. ↓, Lleshi A. ↑,
77', Diallo I. 🟨,
82', Mikhnyuk I. ↓, Dubovskiy P. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
95', Barjamaj M. ↓, Kasa A. ↑,
95', Tresa L. ↓, Karrica B. ↑,
105+3', Diallo I. ↓, Boye I. ↑,
106', Varaksa V. ↓, Khramtsevich Y. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Dubovskiy P. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Lleshi A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Angban V. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Lulaj B. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Sakhonchik A. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Boye I. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Rusakov E. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Lila B. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Kress E. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Karrica B. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Khramtsevich Y. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Epitaux Y. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Recent form of BATE has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AF Elbasani is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

AF Elbasani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, AF Elbasani has had a series of home games.

AF Elbasani might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, BATE won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

AF Elbasani - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.76%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BATE Borisov
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.07.26	AF Elbasani - BATE Borisov	1:1 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
02.07.26	BATE Borisov - Gomel	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Torpedo-BelAZ - BATE Borisov	3:0 ✺
21.06.26	BATE Borisov - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:3 ✺
Belarusian Cup
17.06.26	Molodechno - BATE Borisov	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLLLW
- AF Elbasani
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.07.26	AF Elbasani - BATE Borisov	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
24.06.26	AF Elbasani - Sutjeska	Canceled ✺
Albanian Super League
31.05.26	Vllaznia Shkodër - AF Elbasani	1:2 ✺
24.05.26	AF Elbasani - Dinamo City	3:0 ✺
17.05.26	AF Elbasani - Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 T?WWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.07.26	AF Elbasani - BATE Borisov	1:1

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