Match Info

I Lyga - Round 23

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	BFA Vilnius		Babrungas Plungė

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.40	3.10	1.95
	3.45	3.3	1.9
	3.46	3.46	1.88
	3.53	3.52	1.9	Watch
	3.4	3.35	1.85
	3.57	3.42	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (2.97)	3.36 ↑ (3.13)	1.9 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFA Vilnius
25.9%

Draw
26.7%

Babrungas Plungė
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

29%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

28.4%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Babrungas Plungė has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Babrungas Plungė's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Babrungas Plungė than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Babrungas Plungė, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ TOPLYGA).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BFA won 2.

BFA has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Babrungas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Babrungas has had a series of away games.

Babrungas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, BFA won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:29. (average 1.7:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, BFA won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 2.2:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43:11	32	61
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43

Last Results with these Odds

Babrungas Plungė - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.5%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
28.08.26	Tauras Tauragė - BFA Vilnius	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Neptūnas	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Dainava Alytus - BFA Vilnius	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Transinvest 2	4:2 ✺
02.08.26	FA Šiauliai B - BFA Vilnius	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWTWL
- Babrungas Plungė
Lithuanian Division 2
29.08.26	Garliava - Babrungas Plungė	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Babrungas Plungė - Tauras Tauragė	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Neptūnas - Babrungas Plungė	0:4 ✺
08.08.26	Dainava Alytus - Babrungas Plungė	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Transinvest 2 - Babrungas Plungė	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
01.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:0
04.10.25	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	3:1
31.05.25	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	3:2
23.08.24	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	3:1
30.03.24	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	3:2
26.08.23	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	1:2
07.04.23	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:1

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