Match Info

I Lyga - Round 28

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	13:30	DAZN
Brazil	08:30	DAZN Brasil
Canada	07:30	DAZN Canada
France	13:30	DAZN France
Germany	13:30	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	20:30	DAZN Japan
New Zealand	00:30	DAZN New Zealand
Portugal	12:30	DAZN / App
Spain	13:30	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	13:30	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	07:30	DAZN USA


	BFA Vilnius		Minija Kretinga

	1	X	2
	6.00	4.20	1.40
	6.3	4.25	1.37
	6.19	4.2	1.38
	6.2	4.29	1.43	Watch
	6.05	4.1	1.34
	6.25	4.25	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↑ (4.72)	4.22 ↑ (3.7)	1.39 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFA Vilnius
14.5%

Draw
21.2%

Minija Kretinga
64.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.2%

24.5%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

23.9%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Minija Kretinga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Minija Kretinga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minija Kretinga than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Minija Kretinga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

BFA Vilnius - Minija Kretinga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 1, ⚽,
56', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 8th and 2nd in the Promotion - TOPLYGA (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BFA won 2.

BFA is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Minija have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Minija may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, BFA has faced a series of away games on the road.

Recently, Minija has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Minija carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, BFA has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:24 (averaging 1.2:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for BFA against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 11:9 goals (averaging 1.8:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	FK Minija	27	22	1	4	71:18	53	67
5	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42:41	1	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
16.10.26	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	3:0 ✺
09.10.26	BFA Vilnius - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
26.09.26	Panevėžys - BFA Vilnius	2:0 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
19.09.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BFA Vilnius	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Garliava - BFA Vilnius	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTW
- Minija Kretinga
Lithuanian Division 2
17.10.26	Minija Kretinga - Babrungas Plungė	2:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
11.10.26	Minija Kretinga - Kauno Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
02.10.26	Minija Kretinga - Kauno Žalgiris 2	5:0 ✺
19.09.26	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dainava Alytus - Minija Kretinga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
13.06.26	Minija Kretinga - BFA Vilnius	3:0
30.08.25	Minija Kretinga - BFA Vilnius	1:1
03.05.25	BFA Vilnius - Minija Kretinga	1:0
17.08.24	BFA Vilnius - Minija Kretinga	1:1
23.03.24	Minija Kretinga - BFA Vilnius	0:1
28.10.23	BFA Vilnius - Minija Kretinga	2:0
10.06.23	Minija Kretinga - BFA Vilnius	1:1

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