Match Info

Virsliga - Round 22

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	BFC Daugavpils		Liepāja

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.90	3.25	2.10
	2.63	3.35	2.28	Watch
	3.06	3.55	2.22
	3.14	3.53	2.14	Watch
	3.00	3.45	2.17
	3.02	3.43	2.24
	3.00	3.30	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.65)	3.41 ↓ (3.53)	2.19 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFC Daugavpils
31%

Draw
27%

Liepāja
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

25.7%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

26.3%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFC Daugavpils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Liepāja will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 7. Sylla M. 9. Traore A. 11. Yakubu J. 97. Kivinda D.	24. Oss D. (G) 35. Sorokins V. 4. Martins M. (C) 3. Iljins K. 5. Silva A. 22. Mushindi I. 32. Strumia L. 31. Amatkarijo C. 55. Fellipe Vieira 23. Haidara A. 18. Oloko E.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 6. Barkovskis N. 66. Bujanovs K. 27. Kopilovs M. 19. Pinaskins E. 42. Saveljevs A. 1. Saveljevs J. (G) 8. Skrebels R.	14. Gueye D. 26. Isajevs V. 29. Lakutis L. 44. Leidsman K. 7. Ogunniyi A. 12. Petkovic D. (G) 9. Pulis I. 6. Rodolphe E.
Coaches
Kurbatov K.	Vassiljev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Mushindi I. ↓, Rodolphe E. ↑,
41', 1 - 0, Sylla M. ⚽, Traore A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Amatkarijo C. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Sylla M. ⚽, Yakubu J. (A),
56', 3 - 0, Sylla M. ⚽, Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. (A),
63', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Leidsman K. ↑,
63', Strumia L. ↓, Ogunniyi A. ↑,
72', Mihalcovs G. ↓, Skrebels R. ↑,
72', Kivinda D. ↓, Ayebadiepreye D. ↑,
78', Haidara A. 🟨,
81', Yakubu J. ↓, Barkovskis N. ↑,
82', Haidara A. ↓, Pulis I. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Gueye D. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Liepāja will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 23:39. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41:43	-2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35:35	0	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
30.06.26	RFS - BFC Daugavpils	3:1 ✺
25.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Riga	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:0 ✺
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTWTT
- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
30.06.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:0 ✺
26.06.26	Liepāja - RFS	0:2 ✺
21.06.26	Riga - Liepāja	4:0 ✺
16.06.26	Grobiņa - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
12.06.26	Liepāja - Super Nova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
17.05.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	2:1
03.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja	2:0
02.11.25	BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja	1:2
09.08.25	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	2:1
13.06.25	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
19.04.25	BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja	4:2
09.11.24	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	3:3

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