Match Info

Date: 9 May 2022, Monday


	BSAD		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.3	3	Watch
	2.37	3	3.1
	2.33	3.2	3.05
	2.36	3.05	3.15
	2.35	3.26	3.39
	2.35	3	3.2	Watch
	2.38	3.18	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.73)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	3.15 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
40%

Draw
30%

Famalicão
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

28.8%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

29.8%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in BSAD's performance.

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Famalicão might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BSAD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Famalicão could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.8%	20.9%	16.3%

BSAD - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 86 users predict this event. BSAD will win (votes: 54 - 62.8%). Famalicão will win (votes: 14 - 16.3%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 20.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for BSAD: 52.6% – 73%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).

Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (57.65%), has project points - 27, has currently - 25, has a good chance of relegated (86%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Famalicão has the most likely position - 13 (39.9%), has project points - 36, has currently - 33, has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 43, importance 37, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Belenenses will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Liga Portugal
30.04.22	BSAD - Braga	0:1 ✺
24.04.22	Estoril Praia - BSAD	2:2 ✺
16.04.22	BSAD - Vizela	1:0 ✺
09.04.22	Benfica - BSAD	3:1 ✺
02.04.22	BSAD - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LTWLW
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
29.04.22	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
23.04.22	Benfica - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
15.04.22	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
10.04.22	Portimonense - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
02.04.22	Famalicão - Boavista	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.01.22	Famalicão - BSAD	1:0
12.02.21	Famalicão - BSAD	0:0
28.09.20	BSAD - Famalicão	1:2
08.03.20	BSAD - Famalicão	0:0
28.09.19	Famalicão - BSAD	3:1

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