Match Info

Date: 2 April 2022, Saturday


	BSAD		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3	2.3
	3.35	2.95	2.32	Watch
	3.25	3.05	2.32
	3.54	3.12	2.36
	3.4	3	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.24	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.04)	3.08 ↓ (3.13)	2.3 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
28.4%

Draw
30.6%

Portimonense
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

30.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

30.6%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

BSAD - Portimonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 11).

Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (71.89%), has project points - 24, has currently - 18, has a good chance of relegated (93%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Portimonense has the most likely position - 12 (16.48%), has project points - 37, has currently - 29, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 40, small importance 16, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Portimonense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Liga Portugal
19.03.22	Santa Clara - BSAD	0:0 ✺
12.03.22	BSAD - Boavista	0:0 ✺
07.03.22	Tondela - BSAD	1:1 ✺
25.02.22	BSAD - Paços de Ferreira	0:2 ✺
19.02.22	Gil Vicente - BSAD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTTLL
- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
20.03.22	Portimonense - Braga	1:2 ✺
12.03.22	Estoril Praia - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
05.03.22	Portimonense - Benfica	1:2 ✺
27.02.22	Vizela - Portimonense	1:1 ✺
21.02.22	Santa Clara - Portimonense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
06.11.21	Portimonense - BSAD	2:0
06.05.21	BSAD - Portimonense	1:0
18.01.21	Portimonense - BSAD	1:0
26.01.20	BSAD - Portimonense	2:1
09.08.19	Portimonense - BSAD	0:0
16.03.19	BSAD - Portimonense	2:2
03.11.18	Portimonense - BSAD	1:1

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