Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz


	Famalicão		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.8	5	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.72	3.97	4.91
	1.69	3.97	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.6	Watch
	1.73	3.95	5.04	Watch
	1.66	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.83)	3.84 ↑ (3.69)	4.86 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
56%

Draw
24.6%

Estoril Praia
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

25.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

25.3%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	26.7%	20%

Famalicão - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Estoril will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 16. De Haas J. 3. Realpe L. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.	1. Robles J. (G) 5. Tsoungui A. 25. Bacher F. 44. Boma K. 2. Sanchez R. 6. Jandro 10. Holsgrove J. 24. Amaral P. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 14. Begraoui Y. 19. Lacximicant A.
Substitutes
55. Ba I. 18. Beney R. 12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 8. Pena M. 5. Rafa Soares 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	22. Carvalho P. 4. Ferro 17. Garcia F. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A. 55. Parente T. 45. Patrick de Paula 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Zabiri Y. ⚽, Sa G. (A),
18', Gil Dias 🟨,
24', 2 - 0, Sa G. ⚽,
38', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tsoungui A. ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
50', 3 - 0, Gil Dias ⚽, Sorriso (A),
63', Sanchez R. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
63', Carvalho J. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
63', Boma K. ↓, Ferro ↑,
64', Pedro Bondo ↓, Rafa Soares ↑,
65', De Amorim M. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
69', Sa G. 🟨,
72', Van de Looi T. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
73', Gil Dias ↓, Beney R. ↑,
76', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
78', 4 - 0, Zabiri Y. ⚽,
80', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
80', Pena M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Famalicão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Famalicão is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Abubakar U. (Inactive) Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Beney R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Estoril: Guitane R. (International duty) Xeka (Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Pastor G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Injury) Israelov O. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.6:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Famalicão - Porto	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWLW
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
01.11.25	Rio Ave - Estoril Praia	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2
Liga Portugal
12.04.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	3:0
01.12.24	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	2:1
28.04.24	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:0
17.12.23	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	1:1
29.01.23	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
15.12.22	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	0:1

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