Match Info

Date: 24 April 2022, Sunday


	Estoril Praia		BSAD

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	4	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.8
	1.98	3.15	4.1
	2.02	3.1	3.95
	2.1	3.2	4.15
	2.05	3	4	Watch
	2.03	3.18	4.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.69)	3.12 ↓ (3.45)	4.02 ↓ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
46.4%

Draw
30.2%

BSAD
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

27.1%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

27.1%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estoril Praia's form might have worsened.

BSAD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BSAD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estoril Praia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BSAD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	26.9%	26.9%

Estoril Praia - BSAD Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%). BSAD will win (votes: 7 - 26.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 27% – 65.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Estoril has the most likely position - 7 (20.5%), has project points - 40, has currently - 35, has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (57.54%), has project points - 28, has currently - 24, has a good chance of relegated (84%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 41, small importance 26, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estoril won 3.

Estoril is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Belenenses is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estoril could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Estoril is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Estoril won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Estoril won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
18.04.22	Estoril Praia - Braga	0:0 ✺
10.04.22	Santa Clara - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
02.04.22	Estoril Praia - Vizela	1:2 ✺
20.03.22	Benfica - Estoril Praia	2:1 ✺
12.03.22	Estoril Praia - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLLLW
- BSAD
Liga Portugal
16.04.22	BSAD - Vizela	1:0 ✺
09.04.22	Benfica - BSAD	3:1 ✺
02.04.22	BSAD - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
19.03.22	Santa Clara - BSAD	0:0 ✺
12.03.22	BSAD - Boavista	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
12.12.21	BSAD - Estoril Praia	0:1
17.02.18	Estoril Praia - BSAD	0:2
17.09.17	BSAD - Estoril Praia	2:1
Club Friendly
02.08.17	BSAD - Estoril Praia	0:1
Liga Portugal
14.04.17	BSAD - Estoril Praia	1:3
04.12.16	Estoril Praia - BSAD	1:1
14.05.16	BSAD - Estoril Praia	2:1

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