Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 26

Date: 4 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Vivero (Badajoz)


	Badajoz		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.7	3.25
	2.3	2.7	3.2
	2.35	2.7	3.35
	2.42	2.74	3.52
	2.26	2.96	3.4
	2.32	2.8	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.07)	2.77 ↑ (2.7)	3.32 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Badajoz
39.4%

Draw
33.1%

Mérida AD
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

34%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

33.2%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Badajoz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mérida AD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Badajoz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mérida AD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Badajoz - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 15 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Badajoz won 2.

Badajoz is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Mérida AD is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Badajoz will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Badajoz won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Badajoz won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Badajoz
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.02.23	Deportivo A Coruña - Badajoz	5:0 ✺
18.02.23	Badajoz - San Sebastian Reyes	0:0 ✺
12.02.23	San Fernando - Badajoz	2:1 ✺
05.02.23	Badajoz - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0 ✺
29.01.23	Algeciras - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLTT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.02.23	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	0:3 ✺
18.02.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
12.02.23	Mérida AD - Linense	1:0 ✺
04.02.23	Deportivo A Coruña - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Mérida AD - San Sebastian Reyes	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.12.22	Mérida AD - Badajoz	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.03.21	Badajoz - Mérida AD	1:0
13.12.20	Mérida AD - Badajoz	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
27.10.19	Badajoz - Mérida AD	1:1
25.02.18	Badajoz - Mérida AD	4:2
08.10.17	Mérida AD - Badajoz	3:0

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