Match Info

Baiano - Round 4

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)


	Bahia		Barcelona de Ilhéus

	1	X	2
	1.05	10	35
	1.04	8.87	20	Watch
	1.04	10	41
	1.04	10	28
	1.05	11	51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.15)	9.97 ↑ (5.89)	35 ↑ (18.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
88.1%

Draw
9.2%

Barcelona de Ilhéus
2.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.6%

15.5%

4.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.

Barcelona de Ilhéus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 7. Ademir 19. Caio Alexandre 33. David Duarte 16. Erick Pulga 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 2. Gilberto 6. Jean Lucas 46. Luciano Juba 21. Ramos S. 12. Willian Jose	1. Pedro Antonio (G) 4. Bremer 73. Gianlucas 5. Guimaraes 10. Hadrian 2. Jeferson Neves 27. Maikon 99. Neto 88. Rhuan 3. Vital (C) 19. Wesley
Substitutes
63. David Martins 89. Dell 83. Fred Lippert 34. Joao Paulo (G) 57. Kaue Junior 37. Kayky 43. Luiz Gustavo 44. Marcos Victor 99. Oliveira K. 5. Rezende 77. Ruan Pablo 66. Ze Guilherme	33. Edmilson Junior 6. Elivelton 18. Emerson 23. Gabriel Hilario 55. Hebert 9. Joao Gabriel 11. Kaique 77. Marcelinho 21. Matheus Bidick 8. Nascimento 22. Neto Rocha (G) 12. Simoes Viana W. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Everton Ribeiro ⚽,
30', Ademir 🟨,
43', Erick Pulga 🟨,
45+1', Hadrian 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Hadrian ↓, Hebert ↑,
46', Wesley ↓, Kaique ↑,
46', Hebert 🟨,
51', 3 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽,
53', 3 - 1, Guimaraes ⚽,
56', Maikon ↓, Elivelton ↑,
61', Neto ↓, Emerson ↑,
63', 4 - 1, Ademir ⚽,
65', Gianlucas 🟨,
66', 5 - 1, Ademir ⚽,
67', Caio Alexandre ↓, David Martins ↑,
67', Ademir ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
67', Erick Pulga ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
68', Rhuan ↓, Gabriel Hilario ↑,
68', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
74', Jeferson Neves 🟨,
77', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Oliveira K. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Bahia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Bahia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
17.01.26	Bahia - Galícia	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Bahia	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Bahia - Jequié	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
03.12.25	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW
- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
17.01.26	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Galícia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Penedense	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Lagarto - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
15.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Bahia	0:1
31.01.24	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0
01.02.23	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Bahia	1:2
09.02.22	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:1

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