Match Info

Serie D - Round 14

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Mario Pessoa (Ilhéus)


	Barcelona de Ilhéus		Penedense

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.1	4.6
	1.95	2.92	3.95
	1.98	3.05	3.98
	2.01	3.02	3.96	Watch
	1.99	2.91	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.07)	3 ↓ (3.02)	4.09 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona de Ilhéus
47.3%

Draw
30.4%

Penedense
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

29.9%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

29.5%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona de Ilhéus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Penedense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+6', 🟥,
90+8', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 7 and 8).

Recent performances by Barcelona have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Penedense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Barcelona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Barcelona is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barcelona won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Serie D
19.07.25	Lagarto - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Juazeirense	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense	4:1 ✺
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LLWTW
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
20.07.25	Penedense - União Carmolandense	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Lagarto - Penedense	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Sergipe - Penedense	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Penedense - Juazeirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
20.04.25	Penedense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Penedense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide