Match Info

I Liqa - Round 5

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday


	Baku Sporting		MOIK Baku

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.45	1.72
	4.46	3.47	1.69
	3.67	2.78	2.15	Watch
	3.80	3.40	1.70
	4.02	3.71	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.2)	3.36 ↑ (3.35)	1.81 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 0.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baku Sporting
22.8%

Draw
27%

MOIK Baku
50.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.4%

27.1%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Baku Sporting's form might have worsened.

MOIK Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting MOIK Baku's recent form is better than expected.

Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
25', 1 - 0, Abdullayev E. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Quliyev C. (Penalty Awarded),
43', 1 - 2, Tagiyev D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+4', 1 - 3, Cafarov V. ⚽,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 10th in the Relegation and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 2.

MOIK is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sporting has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:2 (averaging 0.8:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sporting against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 1.3:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	MOIK Baku	5	3	1	1	9:3	6	10
10	Baku Sporting	5	0	0	5	1:12	-11	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
10.10.26	Gəncəbasar - Baku Sporting	2:0 ✺
17.09.26	Baku Sporting - Səbail	0:1 ✺
10.09.26	Zagatala - Baku Sporting	3:0 ✺
03.09.26	Baku Sporting - Karvan	0:3 ✺
22.05.26	Shahdag Qusar - Baku Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- MOIK Baku
Azerbaijan First Division
09.10.26	MOIK Baku - Mingachevir	3:0 ✺
18.09.26	Xankəndi - MOIK Baku	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	MOIK Baku - Shimal	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	MOIK Baku - Shahdag Qusar	0:1 ✺
21.05.26	MOIK Baku - Difai Ağsu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
08.04.26	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	3:1
12.02.26	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	2:0
22.10.25	MOIK Baku - Baku Sporting	0:0
23.05.25	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	0:0
18.12.24	MOIK Baku - Baku Sporting	1:0
19.09.24	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	0:0

Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide