Match Info

I Liqa - Round 27

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday


	Shahdag Qusar		Baku Sporting

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	3	2.92	Watch
	2.21	3.01	2.94
	2.25	3.09	3.02	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3
	2.25	3.04	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (3.35)	2.99 ↓ (3.3)	2.99 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shahdag Qusar
39.9%

Draw
30%

Baku Sporting
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

27.2%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

27.2%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shahdag Qusar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shahdag Qusar's performance.

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baku Sporting might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shahdag Qusar than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shahdag Qusar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baku Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Shahdag Qusar - Baku Sporting Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Shahdag (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shahdag (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Tagiyev E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Aqblevor P. ⚽,

Preview

Shahdag is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Sporting has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Sporting is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shahdag won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Shahdag won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Sahdag Qusar	4	4	0	0	13:1	12	12
10	Baku Sporting	3	0	0	3	0:7	-7	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan First Division
15.05.26	Səbail - Shahdag Qusar	0:0 ✺
05.05.26	Shahdag Qusar - Mingachevir	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	MOIK Baku - Shahdag Qusar	0:1 ✺
22.04.26	Zagatala - Shahdag Qusar	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	Shahdag Qusar - Cəbrayıl	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TWWWT
- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
15.05.26	Baku Sporting - Zagatala	3:0 ✺
07.05.26	Cəbrayıl - Baku Sporting	2:3 ✺
30.04.26	Baku Sporting - Difai Ağsu	1:1 ✺
23.04.26	Shimal - Baku Sporting	1:0 ✺
16.04.26	Baku Sporting - Şəfa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
10.12.25	Baku Sporting - Shahdag Qusar	2:1
18.09.25	Shahdag Qusar - Baku Sporting	2:3

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