Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 - Round 33

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday


	Bala Azul		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	6.75	3.9	1.41
	7.37	3.92	1.4
				Watch
	4.88	3.44	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.33 ↑ (4.86)	3.75 ↑ (3.35)	1.49 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Azul
14.4%

Draw
24.3%

Lorca Deportiva
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

27%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

27.3%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Lorca Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorca Deportiva's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Azul than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorca Deportiva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bala Azul - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lorca Deportiva (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorca Deportiva (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Carrasco A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 2, Lopez G. ⚽,
71', 1 - 2, Ferni ⚽,
90', Navarro A. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent performances by Bala Azul have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lorca Deportiva is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lorca Deportiva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lorca Deportiva is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Bala Azul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Including home match between the teams, Bala Azul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Bala Azul
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
27.04.25	Bala Azul - Santomera	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Bala Azul - UCAM Murcia B	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Real Murcia B - Bala Azul	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Bala Azul - Cartagena B	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Marítimo - Bala Azul	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWL
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
27.04.25	Lorca Deportiva - Alcantarilla	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Caravaca - Lorca Deportiva	1:2 ✺
16.04.25	Lorca Deportiva - Unión Molinense	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minerva	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Muleño - Lorca Deportiva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
21.12.24	Lorca Deportiva - Bala Azul	2:0
13.02.22	Lorca Deportiva - Bala Azul	1:0
09.10.21	Bala Azul - Lorca Deportiva	0:3

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